Captain Ahab had Moby Dick. Wile E. Coyote had Road Runner. Senate Democrats have Susan Collins.
Even as ticket-splitting rates have plummeted, Collins has stymied all previous Democratic attempts to oust her from her Maine Senate seat and she remains the only Republican senator left standing in a state that Donald Trump lost in 2024. A rare GOP moderate, she frequently crosses party lines, voting to convict Trump in his 2021 impeachment trial and against confirming his Defense secretary four years later.
That has made her unpopular with some Trump voters, but Collins’ path has always been to make up for her weakness on her right flank by bringing in an impressive number of moderate Democrats and cleaning up with independents. In the midterms, Democrats are hoping she’s become so unpalatable that her coalition collapses.
A Public Policy Polling survey, commissioned by a top Democratic super PAC and shared first with POLITICO, is giving them reason for optimism. Collins’ approval rating is underwater by 37 points with 24 percent approving of her and 61 percent disapproving, per the survey of 569 registered Maine voters. The crosstabs show she is being pinched on both sides — she’s upside down with Kamala Harris voters 17/71 and with Trump voters at 30/52.
“A big part of Collins’ problem is that when it comes to Trump her approach is just antagonizing everyone,” the pollster wrote in the memo, noting that 81 percent “of Harris voters think she votes with Trump too often” and 73 percent of “of Trump voters think she doesn’t vote with Trump often enough.”
Her overall favorability rating was underwater at 19/65. Similarly among independents it was upside down at 19/66.
The poll, which had a sample size split nearly evenly among Democrats, independents and Republicans and was conducted on March 20-21 on behalf of Senate Majority PAC, a group with close ties to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. It has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
But Collins still has one massive advantage: Democrats are likely to have a hard time recruiting a candidate to go against her. There is a wide open governor’s race that looks far more enticing than challenging a formidable incumbent. One prominent Democrat, former state Senate President Troy Jackson, is exploring a run for governor and moderate Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, a former Collins staffer, is highly unlikely to challenge her.
Even with a top-tier challenger, Collins knows how to survive. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted in mid-October of 2019 found her approval rating underwater by 15 points with 35 percent approving to 50 percent disapproving.
In that race, she was vastly outraised by her 2020 opponent, then-Maine state House Speaker Sara Gideon. Collins consistently trailed her in the polls and even some in the GOP doubted her ability to prevail. Ultimately, the incumbent won, 51 to 42 percent in November 2020 — even as Trump lost the state and under Maine’s new ranked-choice voting system.
“Chuck Schumer literally ran out of things to spend money on last time he tried to take down Susan Collins and she still won,” said Nick Puglia, a spokesperson for the Senate GOP campaign arm. “In 2026, Mainers will reelect Susan Collins again and no amount of partisan polling or openly begging any Democrat to run against her will change that.”
At a time when the MAGA movement has demanded unwavering loyalty to Trump, Collins could be vulnerable to a primary challenger. But she ran unopposed for the Republican nomination in 2020 and could again avoid a serious challenge in 2026. Trump allies are well aware that Collins is the only Republican who could win the seat, though they don’t control every MAGA activist in the state.
The survey does have some good results for Collins. She still has support from 17 percent of Harris voters, a not insignificant level of crossover appeal. Compare that to Trump, who has an approval rating of just 2 percent with Harris voters.
Like this reporting? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
Read the full article here