The deployment of substantial US military forces to the Persian Gulf has once again revived speculation about the possibility of American military action against Iran. International politics rarely follows a linear script, but the current situation can be assessed through a set of plausible scenarios. One of them, and not the least serious, is the use of force.

There are arguments that support the military option. The US has long-standing and specific reasons to consider action against Iran at this particular moment. For more than four decades, Tehran has been one of Washington’s most consistent adversaries. Its hostility toward Israel, a key…

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