Missile defenses, alliance vulnerabilities, and fear of a wider war are shaping Washington’s restraint, even as pressure on Tehran continues

The anticipated US strike on Iran, widely expected on February 1, ultimately did not take place. American forces had been deployed across the region, logistical chains aligned, and operational scenarios prepared. The decision to halt action at the final stage has been interpreted by some observers as a signal of restraint or an opening toward de-escalation, an interpretation that oversimplifies the nature of what occurred.

What emerged was a recalibration of pressure, shaped by risk management rather than…

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