Why Cucho Hernandez ‘Only’ Netted The Columbus Crew $16 Million

In a move that will shake up the MLS Eastern Conference landscape, the Columbus Crew agreed to transfer star attacker Cucho Hernandez to La Liga’s Real Betis for a fee that could reportedly reach up to $16 milllion.

Even if not all the add-ons are met, the deal represents Columbus’ largest-ever outgoing transfer fee. And including add-ons, it would rank among the 10 most expenisve outgoing transfers in league history. And yet there’s a feeling among some MLS followers – those in Central Ohio in particular – that the 25-year-old Colombian should have fetched even more as one of the league’s top MVP contenders last season, and a player still entering the prime of his career.

In terms of the skillset and age, Hernandez’s departure shares a lot of similarities to when Miguel Almiron departed Atlanta United for Newcastle United for what is still a record sum of $27 million. Both are versatile South American attackers who made the leap across the Atlantic at similar ages after each helped their MLS teams win major silverware. And yet Almiron commanded at least $10 million more than what Hernandez will fetch. (Incidentally, Almiron made a reverse transfer back to Atlanta this season.)

That might sound strange at first. But there are several factors that kept Hernandez’s price closer to that of 2021 MLS Golden Boot winner Valentin Castellanos, whose search for a permanent deal was prolonged after first moving on loan to New York City FC’s sister club Girona.

Here’s four reasons why the Crew accepted a somewhat less earth-shattering offer for one of the most dynamic players in league history.

Contract Length

This is the biggest and most obvious one. Hernandez’s contract with Columbus was up at the end of the season. And most likely, any talks about an extension either fell apart or were very far from a resolution.

A similar saga at a similar age played out for Luciano Acosta, who was then employed by D.C. United. In early 2019, the Argentine appeared to be nearing a move to French giants Paris-St. Germain. But according to reporting from The Athletic, the sides remained several million dollars apart, and talks broke down.

Eventually Acosta fell out of favor during a turbulent 2019 D.C. campaign, and left MLS for Liga MX as a free agent. Two years later, FC Cincinnati secured his services, and he evolved into the 2023 MLS MVP during Cincy’s shield-winning campaign.

With teams allowed to negotiate pre-contracts with players in the final six months of a current deal, this winter window represented Columbus’ last chance to sell Hernandez and avoid a situation like D.C. encountered if they couldn’t reach an extension. That likely moved the asking price lower than it might have been otherwise.

The Messi Calculation

No team would publicly admit this, but any front office being honest about its ability to win silverware now and in the future must understand their probabilities will be better after Lionel Messi has played his last game in MLS.

The eight-time Ballon d’Or winner’s current contract runs out at this season’s end, and while it’s expected he will extend that deal at least a year in order to remain fit for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, beyond 2026 is a major question mark.

If you’re an MLS rival with a wanted commodity on your roster, that reality might change your thinking about your asking price, since timing might be more important.

International Play

One major difference between Cucho Hernandez now and Miguel Almiron in 2019 was their international careers.

By the time Almiron moved to Newcastle, he had already made considerable inroads with Paraguay’s national team, making eight qualifying appearances in their failed bid to reach the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

Hernandez hasn’t had that much exposure on that level, in part because the level of talent in the current Colombian national team picture is arguably the highest it’s been since the Carlos Valderrama-led sides of the 1990s.

That lack of senior international experience could depress a valuation, even if it’s a factor largely out of his control.

25 Isn’t That Young

Hernandez hopefully has plenty of peak playing years left, but in soccer terms he’s about as old as you can get and suggest with certainty that his best years are still ahead.

Almiron was a year younger when he made his Newcastle move. Alphonso Davies, Jhon Duran and Ricardo Pepi were all still teenagers when they agreed to leave MLS for deals reportedly worth at least $20 million.

Put another way, if Hernandez’s outgoing transfer haul does reach $16 million, it will easily be the heftiest outgoing fee ever paid for an MLS player age 25 or older.