The warning comes as markets have spiked on several occasions before big announcements by President Trump
The White House has issued a warning to staff against using insider information on the Iran war to trade on financial markets, several media outlets reported on Thursday, citing unnamed administration officials.
Federal employees are barred from gambling while on government property, while federal ethics regulations prohibiting the use of non-public information for personal gain. Some major policy decisions made by US President Donald Trump have, however, been preceded by well-timed bets, prompting some experts and politicians to question whether information may have leaked in advance.
The White House Management Office reportedly sent a warning email on March 24, a day after Trump ordered a five‑day pause in planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
Multiple news outlets, citing market data, later reported that about 15 minutes before the abrupt announcement of a policy shift, futures markets saw a surge in trading activity. More than $760 million worth of oil futures contracts reportedly changed hands in under two minutes. Several reports also said three Polymarket accounts collectively earned over $600,000 after correctly anticipating the timing of this week’s ceasefire with the Islamic Republic.
There was no evidence of leaks or misuse of insider information within the administration, with one official describing the email, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, as a timely “reminder” amid discussion of large market trades.
The reported surge in betting activity has drawn criticism from Trump’s political opponents. Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal said prediction markets have turned war into a casino-like activity and warned they could enable insider trading and leaks of sensitive information. In March, he introduced legislation to curb fraud and abuse in fast-growing prediction markets, proposing guardrails on platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket and PredictIt.
In recent months, media reports have pointed to heightened trading around conflict-related events. Reuters reported in January that an unknown trader made about $410,000 after betting on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
There were also reports of users in Israel placing bets on Iranian missile strikes on Israeli territory, with some cases involving attempts to influence related reporting in order to affect betting outcomes.
Earlier this month, Polymarket apologized after public backlash over allowing bets on whether American airmen from a downed US fighter jet would be rescued from Iran.
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