Nearly 10 million Americans could be without health insurance if the “big beautiful bill” does not pass, the White House warned Saturday.
In a memo reported by Fox News, the Trump administration cited a study by the White House Counsel of Economic Advisors, which warns 8.2 million to 9.2 million more Americans could be without health insurance as a result of an ensuing recession if President Donald Trump’s budget measure does not pass.
According to the Fox report:
The research assumes that the U.S. had approximately 27 million uninsured people in 2025. If the budget bill does not pass, that could increase to approximately 36 million uninsured people, far closer to the approximately 50 million people who were uninsured before the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare, in 2010, according to the memo.
The White House said the states that generously expanded Medicaid to previously ineligible residents will pull back their coverage during a severe recession.
But it also qualifies its conclusions by saying the analysis assumes “no policy countermeasures,” which the White House describes as a “very unlikely but plausible worse case” scenario, Fox reported.
At stake in passage of the bill is the expiration in 2026 of the 2017 Trump tax cuts, which some analysts say will trigger an economic downturn. Loss of health coverage would not be the only downside.
Extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would prevent the average taxpayer from a 22-percent tax hike, Breitbart reported, adding:
The House Ways and Means Committee said the bill would increase take-home pay for a median-income household with two children by roughly $4,000 to $5,000, and it would raise annual real wages by $2,100 to $3,300 per worker. The legislation would fulfill Trump’s promise to end taxes on tips, overtime pay, and car loan interest, and provide tax relief for seniors.
The White House projects the expiration of the tax cuts would also result in reduced consumer spending, drained by higher individual taxes. This would impact small business investment and hiring, tighten the availability of credit, and push interest rates higher.
Failure to stop the tax increase with the Trump bill could recreate conditions similar to the formidable 2008 recession, advisers predicted.
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