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In the new Marquette University Law School national poll released this week, 42% said things in the country were generally going in the right direction. This response has doubled since October last year. In the late March Harvard Center for American Politics/Harris poll, 41% of registered voters gave the right track response, up from 20% in November. In the new AP/National Opinion Research Center poll, the right track response is up 11 points since January. And, in the mid-March Fox News poll, 43% of registered voters were very or somewhat satisfied with the way things were going in the country, up 12 points since December and the highest response since 2021.
What’s going on here? First, it is important to note that the negative response (wrong track/dissatisfied) in each of these questions is still higher than the right track response. Trump’s approval rating is edging downward in many polls. While his base is still glued to him, independents are peeling off. The rise is also surprising given Americans’ pessimism about their own and the country’s economic prospects. So we are left with a puzzle: What explains the right track’s rise? Let me offer a few possible explanations:
Donald Trump isn’t Joe Biden. The final months of Joe Biden’s presidency left a uniquely bad taste. In the Harvard/Harris poll, Trump gets better marks than Biden on handling immigration, the economy, foreign affairs, and even inflation. In the poll, Trump has a higher favorable rating today than Biden does now , 47% and 39%, respectively (other polls give Trump a lower favorability rating). Fifty-four percent said Trump was doing a better job than Biden while 46% disagreed. Again, a caution: 42%, up from 35% last month, say Trump is doing a worse job than expected.
Immigration. Poll after poll in the fall showed that immigration ranked as one of the top issues in the campaign. Trump’s tough posture on the issue was a winner. On Election Day, 12% told the exit poll consortium that immigration was most important issue to their vote. Of this group, 89% voted for Trump. In both exit polls, more than 85% said Trump would do a better job handling the issue than Harris.
In the new AP/NORC poll, 49% approved of his handling of immigration, more than gave that response at any point in Trump’s first term. In the Harvard/Harris poll, Trump also got his best marks on handling immigration: 53% approved. Deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes and securing the border still have broad majority support. While views on immigration policy are nuanced, Trump did what he said he was going to do and apprehensions at the border are down significantly.
The Size of the Federal Government. Although Americans want the federal government to do many things and don’t want to see popular programs cut, they have long believed that government is too big, wasteful, and inefficient. Stories of pandemic fraud have only exacerbated this view. They may not like DOGE’s chainsaw, but after years of watching administration after administration fail to address their concerns, they are unlikely to believe a scalpel will work either. Many mistakes have been made in terms of cuts, but it is possible they see the changes as movement in the right direction. In the AP/NORC poll, 56% said they wanted substantial change in how the country was run and another 27% said they wanted a complete and total upheaval. Two percent said no change.
Americans want an assertive president. It could be that the right track rise relates to characteristics Americans want in a president. Polls conducted over decades show that Americans fear a leader who is bellicose or too tough. At the same time, they don’t want a weak chief executive. They like an assertive president. For better or worse, that’s Trump.
Right Track Responses Mean Something Else. So, right track is rising but Americans don’t believe the economy has improved. They are becoming more negative about Trump and they believe his sweeping tariffs will hurt the country, relations with allies, and their pocketbooks. What gives? Many years ago, Ronald Reagan’s pollster Richard Wirthlin told me that right/wrong track responses weren’t usually about policy. They were about values. Well, this doesn’t work very well now because in areas such as honesty and character, Americans don’t like Donald Trump’s values. So perhaps the rise in right track is related to his boldness and that, for better or worse, something is being done. Or it could be a fluke and, like Trump’s other ratings, right track responses will fall, too, especially after the stock market’s reaction to Trump’s tariff announcement.
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