American forces are bound to face heavy losses, ex-officer and military commentator Stanislav Krapivnik has told RT
US President Donald Trump has deployed thousands of troops to the Middle East and said he wants to seize Iran’s foremost crude export hub, Kharg Island, to “take the oil.” However, such an assault promises heavy losses and a logistics quagmire for Washington, according to former US Army officer Stanislav Krapivnik.
In an interview with RT on Tuesday, the military-political expert said that Trump wants to cement a “win” in his war on Iran to claw back some domestic support.
“They have to show a win, because right now, they can’t sell this war,” he said. Only 30% of Americans support the war, despite the usual tendency to “rally around the flag” during a conflict, even an “unpopular” one, he added. “[Support is at] 30% and falling. They don’t know what to do.”
Krapivnik expressed skepticism that Trump’s generals would be “willing to tell him the truth” about potential casualties.
The approach: 200 kilometers of open water
Thousands of US paratroopers, marines, and special forces soldiers have reportedly been deployed to the Middle East as Washington considers seizing the key oil hub, which handles most of Iran’s crude exports.
These forces are mainly deployed off the coast of Kuwait, around 200 kilometers (124 miles) from Kharg Island, across the Persian Gulf, according to Krapivnik.
US forces could go by sea, but will “more likely” approach from the air, he said.
Their main options include C-130 transport planes, “which are relatively slow-flying large aircraft,” helicopters, or V-22 Ospreys, “which can carry only 22 troops apiece,” Krapivnik said. The notoriously unreliable vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft has earned the nickname ‘widow maker,’ having led to 30 deaths before it even entered active service in 2007.
“Getting there, they’re going to take casualties. They’re going to be losses in aircraft,” Krapivnik said, stressing that the Iranians are “dug in and waiting to defend” the largely flat island. Any approaching aircraft would face Iranian man-portable air defense missiles, which “could easily take these planes out,” he added.
Holding on
Once disembarked, US forces will face the task of fighting through Kharg Island and clearing the remaining industrial and residential buildings in its northern areas.
“They’d have to clear the city, every building… They’re gonna have casualties, and a lot of casualties,” Krapivnik said.
All the while, US forces would face constant strikes from Iranian missiles, Shahed-type UAVs, and FPV drones, as the island lies 36.5 kilometers (23 miles) from mainland Iran, Krapivnik said.
Any crude the US could seize would only be local reserves, given that Tehran would simply shut off its oil pipeline to the island, he added.
A logistics nightmare
Washington will face the “hard problem” of supplying a troop presence on Kharg Island and evacuating the injured across the Persian Gulf, Krapivnik said.
In Iran’s 45 degrees Celsius climate, a soldier in combat would need three to four liters of water a day, he stressed.
“If you drop 2,000 guys on there, you need 8,000 liters of water every single day… never mind food, ammunition… never mind how you’re going to evacuate the wounded,” he said.
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