Topline
The U.S. government suggested Friday that Russia may be to blame for this week’s deadly Azerbaijan Airlines crash, echoing experts’ assessment of the tragedy as investigations remain ongoing.
Rescuers work at the wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 as it lays on the ground near the … [+]
Kazakhstan’s Emergency Ministry Press ServiceKey Facts
Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 was scheduled to travel from Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, to Grozny, a city in the Russian region of Chechnya, on Wednesday, but was diverted and ultimately crashed on the other side of the Caspian Sea, less than two miles from the airport in Aktau, Kazakhstan.
There were 62 passengers and five crew members on board the flight, 29 of whom survived, though many with critical injuries.
Russia has denied involvement with the attack, with its Federal Air Transport Agency initially blaming the crash on a combination of weather and the plane colliding with a flock of birds.
Aviation experts have suggested Russia is more likely to blame, pointing to the nature of the damage to the plane and the location of the crash, as Russia has targeted Ukrainian drones around Grozny—suggesting Russia mistakenly shot down the flight.
Azerbaijan Airlines said Friday a preliminary investigation suggested the plane crashed “due to external physical and technical interference,” and Azerbaijan’s transport minister Rashad Nabiyev said evidence suggests there was “external interference” with the flight, citing testimony from surviving passengers that they heard multiple explosions coming from the outside of the aircraft.
U.S. National Security spokesman John Kirby told reporters Friday the U.S. government has “seen some early indications that would certainly point to the possibility that this jet was brought down by Russian air defense systems,” but did not elaborate on specific evidence.
What Has Russia Said About The Crash?
Russia has so far refused to respond to suggestions that it caused the crash, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov not commenting to reporters Friday on the speculation tying Russia to the tragedy. “The investigation is ongoing into this aviation incident and until the conclusions, which will be made in accordance with its results, we don’t have the right to comment,” Peskov told Russian state media, as quoted by The Wall Street Journal. Sixteen Russian nationals were on board the flight, according to Kazakh officials cited by the Associated Press, and nine Russian survivors were flown to Moscow for treatment.
What Did The Survivors Say About The Crash?
Surviving passengers and crew members told Reuters they heard multiple loud “bangs” after the flight was unable to land in Grozny. “After the bang…I thought the plane was going to fall apart,” passenger Subhonkul Rakhimov told Reuters from the hospital, adding “It was obvious that the plane had been damaged in some way.” “It was as if it was drunk—not the same plane anymore.” Flight attendant Zulfugar Asadov told Reuters the flight’s captain “said that he was advised to land the plane at sea, but he decided to set a course for Aktau and land it on the ground … He warned that there would be a hard landing and asked us to be ready and prepare the passengers.” Flight attendant Aidan Rahimli told Azerbaijan’s Xezer Xeber news website there were three loud blows to the plane that sounded like they were coming from outside the aircraft, as quoted by The Washington Post. When the plane landed, the front part of the plane caught on fire, killing those on board, while the tail end of the plane was more intact. “When we hit the ground, I thought we were already dead because there was a strong shaking. As if my whole body was shaking. I did not expect to survive,” Asadov told Xezer Xeber, as quoted by the Post. “We survived thanks to the heroism of our crew commander and co-pilot.”
What To Watch For
Multiple investigations into the crash remain ongoing, as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia have all launched probes into the tragedy. Azerbaijan Airlines and other airlines in the region also suspended flights into multiple Russian cities Friday in light of the crash. Azerbaijan is criminally investigating the crash, according to Euronews, and should Russia be found responsible, Azerbaijani parliamentarian Rasim Musabeyov told the country’s Turan news agency that the Russian government should apologize and compensate victims’ families—and be punished. “Those who did this should be held criminally liable,” Musabeyov said, as quoted by the Journal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also called for other countries to hold Russia accountable for the tragedy, blaming Russia for the crash and saying Friday that if the Kremlin “decides to spread lies” about its role “we will need to consolidate all international pressure on Moscow in order to establish the truth and ensure accountability.” The conflict risks deteriorating relations between Azerbaijan and Russia, with the Journal noting Azerbaijan has so far maintained “pragmatic” relations with Russia since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The Financial Times notes Azerbaijan previously undermined Russian authorities when it took over the Nagorno-Karabakh region last year despite Russian peacekeepers in the area, however. Going forward, Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center think tank, predicted to the Financial Times Azerbaijan “will be more overconfident and emboldened to push Moscow even harder,” adding, “The clear loser in the South Caucasus will be Russian power and prestige.”
What We Don’t Know
Why the flight ended up crossing over to Kazakhstan before it crashed. In a video published by Russia’s state news agency TASS, Dmitry Yadrov, head of the Russian aviation watchdog Rosaviatsia, claimed the flight could not land in Grozny due to fog and drones from Ukraine, and crossed the sea to Aktau despite offers for the flight to land at other Russian airports. Politico notes that contradicts with reports from Azerbaijan officials, who say the plane was ordered to fly across the Caspian Sea after being refused permission to land at a different Russian airport.
Key Background
Russia has been at war with Ukraine since it first invaded the eastern European country in 2022. Ukraine has increasingly utilized drones in Russian airspace as the fighting has continued—as Russia has also used in Ukraine—and Reuters notes Russia has responded to the attacks with significant air defense systems and equipment to affect the drones’ location data and communication systems. The Azerbaijan Airlines crash comes 10 years after a Malaysian Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was downed after being hit by a Russian missile over Ukraine, an investigation into the crash determined. The crash killed all 298 people on board. Russia denied any role in that incident, which resulted in three men being criminally convicted for murder as a result of their role in shooting down the plane.
Further Reading
White House sees ‘indications’ airliner was downed by Russia (Washington Post)
Probe Points to Russian Air Defenses Causing Azerbaijan Airlines Crash (Wall Street Journal)
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan suspend flights to Russia after plane crash (Financial Times)
Exclusive: Survivors on Azerbaijani plane say they heard bangs before it went down (Reuters)
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