The war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has now entered its third week and has already become one of the most significant geopolitical events of this decade. Yet the broader consequences of this conflict – the erosion of international law by a permanent member of the UN Security Council, a growing rift between the US and Western Europe, and the destabilization of the entire Middle East – remain subjects mainly for professional observers.

For the rest of the world, the most immediate impact is far simpler: the disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has effectively…

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