A conflict over Taiwan has long been viewed as the most likely trigger for war between the United States and China, prompting both sides to study and simulate potential outcomes for decades. Since 2022, attention has increasingly focused on one scenario, the blockade of Taiwan.
Interest surged after China responded to then–U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit by encircling the island with missile impacts and staging exercises that appeared to simulate a quarantine or blockade. This marked the blockade as a credible and likely operational option in future conflict planning.
A blockade is firmly rooted in Chinese military doctrine as one of…
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