Democrats have begun plotting the next phase of their electoral revival with a seven-figure spend in Virginia ahead of a vote they hope will turn into a referendum on Elon Musk.
The party, which had been despondent since Donald Trump’s victory last year, got off the canvas last week with a convincing win in a Wisconsin supreme court race and two strong congressional performances in Florida.
Now all eyes turn to Virginia as the next battleground. In November voters are set to choose a governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and house of delegates. The election will be a bellwether not only for Trump’s presidency but tech billionaire Musk’s unofficial “department of government efficiency”, or Doge, which has hit Virginia hard because of its proximity to the federal government.
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“It is his work and efforts that are going to be litigated in this election,” said Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC), which focuses on building power at state level. “We see the Doge efforts take on a local spin, meaning they’re not just talking about the machete that he wielded without any care or concern but the very real local impact and how it is affecting individuals.”
Republican victories in last year’s elections for the White House and both chambers of Congress plunged Democrats into recriminations and soul searching. An NBC poll last month found that just 27% of registered voters have positive views of the party, its lowest rating since the question was first asked in 1990. Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, recently described the Democratic brand as “toxic”.
But the party’s favoured candidate, Susan Crawford, overcame $25m in spending from Musk last week to defeat a conservative opponent for a seat on Wisconsin’s state supreme court. Democrats also slashed Republicans’ margins in two ruby red congressional districts in Florida, while in Washington DC, Senator Cory Booker delivered an epic 25-hour speech that suggested a party rediscovering its mojo.
Democrats see state legislators as crucial in pushing back against harmful policies emanating from the White House and have been thriving in special elections so far this year. They have defended majorities in five chambers and over-performed by 10 points on average, flipping two districts that Trump won by double digits.
On Monday the DLCC will attempt to build on the momentum by launching a Roadmap to Victory in Virginia memo, including a list of target races in November and an ongoing seven-figure investment in the house of delegates, where Democrats have a narrow 51-49 majority.
Unusually, the DLCC is also adding the highly consequential lieutenant governor’s race to its target map to secure the ability to win tie-breaking votes in the state senate, where Democrats currently have a one-seat margin.
The memo describes legislative Democrats in Virginia as being on the frontlines responding to Trump’s chaos and havoc, while Republicans such as the governor, Glenn Youngkin, expressed support for Doge cuts. State Republicans unanimously voted against a constitutional amendment to protect abortion access and voted nearly entirely in lockstep against a ban on assault weapons.
Democrats claim to be seeing mounting enthusiasm and have launched campaigns in 97 of 100 districts, whereas Republicans have recruited candidates for just 63 districts. The memo observes: “Opportunities to move policy and build power aren’t happening in Washington – they’re happening in the statehouses.”
Youngkin is ineligible to run in November because Virginia bars governors from seeking consecutive terms in office. Instead Winsome Earle-Sears, the current lieutenant governor, will be the Republican nominee in the gubernatorial race while Abigail Spanberger is the presumptive nominee for the Democrats.
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Williams said: “Democrats have been winning elections again. Voters made it clear in 2024 that their issues were around the economy and affordability and economic opportunity, and they asked their elected officials to pay attention to that.
“What we are seeing in these election results is an understanding that Republicans are unfocused and harming communities when they needed support and government to work on their behalf. Voters are not standing for it.”
The DLCC advocates a back-to-basics approach of grassroots organising and face-to-face conversations with voters, addressing issues such as housing, US healthcare prices and wages. Williams said: “You’ve got Democrats in the legislature or candidates who are putting forth agendas around the economy and affordability and trying to address the very real, honest issues that Americans are dealing with.”
Last week’s election results were ominous for Republicans in Virginia, a state that Democrat Kamala Harris won by six percentage points. Trump’s slashing of the federal government, chaotic tariffs and threats to social security could galvanise Democrats while turning off independent and moderate Republicans.
Williams commented: “Yes, Trump is responsible for this, Elon Musk is responsible for this, but local Republicans are also complicit. They are falling in line with a reckless approach to government and a reckless political party with Donald Trump at the helm. They don’t get off the hook.”
Musk burst onto the political stage last year, spending nearly $300m supporting Trump and other Republican campaigns, according to Federal Election Commission filings. On Wednesday, the world’s richest person donned a cheesehead hat and gave out $1m cheques to two Wisconsin voters, declaring them spokespeople for his political group and claiming that the supreme court election was vital to “the future of civilisation”.
But conservative favorite Brad Schimel’s 10-point defeat implied that Musk could become an albatross around Republicans’ necks. Gleeful Democrats pleaded for him to come to their districts and campaign for their Republican opponents in next year’s midterms. Wisconsin congressman Mark Pocan told the Axios website: “I’ll pay for his coach flight.”
Musk’s indiscriminate and unconstitutional assault on the government has had an outsized impact on Virginia, which is home to thousands of federal workers who commute to Washington as well as some key military bases.
Williams observed: “Government is very present in Virginia and it has served them historically well. You’ve got hard workers doing good things, protecting our country, and they’re being tossed around as if nothing matters and that is going to have a big impact.”
But having become addicted to Musk’s patronage, Republicans will struggle to untether themselves. “He committed to buy elections and he’s not getting out of that because Republicans are going to need money to save themselves in these races.
“They’re going to be up against voters who are unwilling to be bought or have that level of assumption about what can move them. Musk is going to be a part of this. Republicans are going to need his resources and we’re going to continue to hear about this all election cycle.”
Don Scott, a Democrat who last year became the first Black speaker in the Virginia house of delegates’ 400-year history, agrees that Musk will continue to cast a long shadow.
“I think Republicans are begging him to come to Virginia because they have not gotten the memo from Wisconsin and Florida and Pennsylvania that voters don’t like the policies,” he said. “Because they haven’t gotten the memo yet, they continue to embrace him and they will not tell him to go away because he’s out of touch. They’re going to find out, I believe, in November how out of touch they are in Virginia.”
Scott noted that whereas Democrats in Washington are shut out of power, their counterparts in the Virginia house of delegates passed resolutions in January enshrining rights to abortion, voting and marriage equality.
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“We’ve got to stop whining,” the speaker said. “There’s no whining in this state. There’s no need to do any handwringing. You don’t get to have a pity party. If you really believe that this is an existential threat, do the work. We have to continue to show folks how we deliver, what values we stand for. Our values are not losing.
“That’s why I’m tired of people talking about the message. We don’t need a hero. We don’t need someone to come in with a cape. Get over Michelle Obama and Barack Obama. We need every day normal Americans to come to the forefront.”
Scott added: “Virginians know exactly who Donald Trump is and we’ll have the opportunity to be the canary in the coal mine for the rest of the country here in November. We’ll be sending a message of hope to the rest of the country that we haven’t been snowed by this guy.”
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