Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said on Wednesday that suspicious activity has been detected around Iran’s bombed-out nuclear sites, although he said there was no sign that Iran could resume uranium enrichment any time soon.
Iran’s uranium enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan were bombed by the United States in June, shortly after the IAEA censured Iran for violating its nuclear non-proliferation obligations. According to various assessments, including from the IAEA, and statements later made by Iranian officials, all three facilities were heavily damaged and rendered inoperable.
Iran’s existing stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium was not destroyed, however. The IAEA said last week it believes “the majority” of Iran’s stockpile is intact, and probably buried in the ruins of the three bombed facilities.
“Will we get access to this uranium? And what will happen to it then? Will Iran want to keep it, will it reduce its enrichment levels again, or will Iran move this uranium abroad?” Grossi wondered last Friday.
The IAEA is supposed to be able to answer those questions, not just ask them, but Iran stopped cooperating after the IAEA censure and airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel. Grossi said on Wednesday that his agency is “inspecting in Iran” once again, but “not at every site that we should be doing it.” He said discussions with Iran to resume inspections at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan are still ongoing.
“We do not see anything that would give rise to the hypothesis of any substantive work going on there,” he said of Iran’s activity at the three sites.
“These are big industrial sites where there is movement, there is activity going on and we are very quick to indicate that this does not imply that there is activity on enrichment,” he said.
“However, the nuclear material enriched at 60 percent is still in Iran,” he added. “And this is one of the points we are discussing because we need to go back there and to confirm that the material is there and it’s not being diverted to any other use. This is very, very important.”
Grossi said Iran potentially has enough uranium to make ten nuclear warheads if it could continue the enrichment process from 60 percent to weapons-grade, but its ability to do so was severely degraded by the destruction of the three main enrichment sites.
European intelligence sources said this week that Iran has imported some 2,000 tons of sodium perchlorate from China. Sodium perchlorate is a key ingredient of solid fuel for ballistic missiles. U.N. sanctions forbid Iran from developing missiles that could carry nuclear warheads but do not explicitly ban Iran from importing the ingredients for missile fuel.
“Two thousand tons of sodium perchlorate are only enough for around 500 missiles. Before the war, Iran planned to produce about 200 missiles per month, and now it must replenish its depleted stockpiles,” said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program.
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