The Berlin-London ‘deal’ is a farce, but one that aligns with regions’s decline
By Timofey Bordachev, Program Director of the Valdai Club
Only a complete imbecile would trust the British as allies. History offers no example of London taking serious risks for the sake of partnership. On the contrary, Britain’s favorite geopolitical sport has long been to encourage continental states to exhaust themselves in battles with stronger adversaries – only for the UK to later emerge as the diplomatic victor. Throwing allies under the bus is tradition, not exception.
Which is why it’s safe to assume that the German government is fully aware the so-called Kensington Treaty – signed with the UK on July 17, 2025 – is not a serious agreement. There are several reasons for this. First, both countries are NATO members, and only the United States enjoys the freedom to bend bloc rules. Second, neither Britain nor Germany possesses the military resources or political will to rebuild a meaningful defense posture. And third, there’s no one for them to fight – at least not credibly.
This odd little treaty capped off what was already a turbulent week in global affairs. It began with contradictory statements from US President Donald Trump about Ukraine and ended with yet another Israeli airstrike – this time targeting Syria, where the new regime is battling internal unrest. Amid such chaos, the Berlin-London accord adds the perfect dash of absurdity: a ceremonial nod to “unity” that distracts from the West’s deepening dysfunction.
The British and German leaders say their pact covers everything from defense cooperation to environmental policy. In reality, it’s a political pantomime. Unlike the raw aggression of Israel or the economic ultimatums coming from Washington, this is Western Europe’s softer contribution to the week’s geopolitical theatre – a performance full of noise but void of substance.
Consider the Israeli strikes on Syria, a continuation of Tel Aviv’s self-declared role as “sheriff of the Middle East.” Israel’s foreign policy, once bound by red lines, now seems guided only by brute impulse. Whether such a strategy is sustainable remains to be seen, but its message is clear – and chilling.
Then there’s President Trump. His recent comments on Russia and the Ukraine conflict suggest a new American approach: shift the entire burden of confronting Moscow onto European allies. The scale of those expected “costs” is still unknown, but the confusion in European capitals was immediate. Trump’s remarks left the EU’s biggest players looking disoriented, scrambling to understand what Washington actually expects.
For months now, the Western Europeans have played the role of geopolitical extras – sitting through summits, issuing statements, and floating vague proposals like a “peacekeeping force” for Ukraine. The idea is laughable. Moscow would never allow it, and everyone knows it. Yet these leaders continue to perform, hoping performance alone will pass for policy.
Now Trump has called their bluff. He wants cash, troops, commitment. NATO’s new Secretary General Mark Rutte – now reborn as an American loyalist – welcomed the idea enthusiastically. But key European capitals balked. France, Italy, and the Czech Republic refused to participate in the new American initiative. France, despite loud rhetoric, has provided only token military aid to Kiev – ten times less than Germany. Italy has given even fewer crumbs.
So what do Western Europe’s “leading powers” do instead? They stage a show.
Enter the Kensington Treaty. Its breadth is comical: a proposed direct rail link between London and Berlin “to improve defense capabilities,” plans for school tourism, joint forums on business, and German investment in Britain to create about 600 jobs. This is not geopolitics; it’s domestic public relations dressed up as diplomacy.
But the core problem runs deeper. For decades now, Western Europe has struggled with a contradiction it cannot resolve. On the one hand, its politicians recognize the need to appear decisive in security matters. On the other, they know that real military action – especially against Russia – is a fantasy. There is no scenario where they could win. So they gesture, but never act.
After the launch of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, this tension briefly gave these Western European leaders a sense of purpose. They could speak boldly, posture grandly. But in the three years since, not much has changed. Despite grand declarations and strategy papers, the bloc has failed to meaningfully expand its defense capacity. At most, they might manage to recruit a few thousand mercenaries from impoverished Balkan states to send to the front.
Even this is unlikely. Any serious move toward independent military power in Western Europe will immediately trigger scrutiny from Washington. The United States has no intention of allowing its trans-Atlantic partners to act unilaterally – no matter how often it demands they “do more.” When Trump says the bloc must rearm, he means it should buy American weapons. Not build its own industry, not forge its own path. Just consume US exports.
This explains why the supposed “militarization” of Germany has sparked so much talk but so little change. It isn’t about Berlin becoming a threat – it’s about Berlin spending more on F-35s. Western Europe remains dependent, constrained, and cautious. Yes, it can still cause harm to Russia in limited ways. But the image its politicians sell to their voters – that of a bold, united, and prepared half-continent – is an illusion.
The new Anglo-German treaty is just the latest act in this tragicomic performance. It makes no military sense, no diplomatic sense, and no strategic sense. But it makes perfect political sense – for a Western Europe that is drifting, divided, and desperate to look busy while doing nothing at all.
This article was first published by Vzglyad newspaper and was translated and edited by the RT team.
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