Government policies, regulations and interventions can make or break markets.
They can make ’em.
And then they can break ’em.
That’s what happened with clean energy policy back in 2021.
The Biden administration issued the “Inflation Reduction Act(IRA).” Except it wasn’t about inflation reduction. It was a big money printing scheme aimed at investment in clean, green technology.
What the IRA did was expand, and increase the market size for green tech. Especially for electric vehicles.
Now, the EV market is about to get a big dose of reality.
Because Trump’s about to punch out the funding…
And more…
About 130,000 jobs, actually.
So, electric vehicle manufacturers, and all those that manufacture parts for them are about to get a taste of the real market.
Oil Price reports:
U.S. Battery Production Set To Decline 75% Under Trump’s ‘Big Bill’
“Last week, the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed what’s been dubbed the “big, beautiful bill”, with the legislation designed to leverage deep cuts to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) credits to pay for tax cuts, immigration enforcement and extra spending on defense.
The contentious bill is now headed for the Senate, where it faces its final test, with all Democrats but only a handful of GOP lawmakers critical of the huge increase it will bring to the national debt.
According to a recent analysis by the International Council on Clean Transportation, the bill, coupled with cuts to other climate policies, could slash U.S. battery production by ~75% by 2030 to 250 GWh from the previously projected 1,050 gigawatt-hours, and EV sales by 40%.
According to the report, doing away with the IRA would eliminate 130,000 potential jobs in the EV sector by 2030, with the majority in battery manufacturing.”
The irony here is interesting.
Not only will Trump eliminate a market by overwriting the IRA, but he’ll be eliminating manufacturing jobs in mostly Republican states.
Here’s where government investment in clean energy technology is the highest.
On the other hand, here’s what’s happens when policy punches the other way.
California has been punching down on oil and gas for more than several years, which has resulted in the third highest cost of living in the country just after left leaning Massachusetts, and Hawaii.
Here’s where taxing and regulating gasoline has gotten California.
AIER reports:
Why California Gas Prices Are the Highest in America
“According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), gasoline prices are generally shaped by five components: crude oil prices, refining costs, distribution and marketing, taxes, and regulations.
In California, taxes and regulatory costs alone account for more than $1.30 per gallon — nearly double the national average.
California has the highest gas tax in the country, at $0.678 per gallon, not including additional fees and environmental surcharges.
Add in the Cap-and-Trade program, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), and boutique fuel blends that are required only in California, and it becomes clear why Californians pay more.
And things are deteriorating further.
The Mische study warns that with refinery closures due to hostile permitting processes and low expected returns under California’s climate mandates, fuel supply in the state could drop by 20 percent by 2026, even as demand stays relatively stable.
Fewer refineries and rigid fuel standards will mean tighter supply and higher prices.”
This is where government policies can make or break the markets, even entire job sectors.
So we’ll have to wait and see what happens for the EV market in the US over the next decade.
Will it continue to grow, or slow down as Trump slows down manfacturing and supply?
Read the full article here