Trump, Tariffs, And Public Opinion

In an interview in October 2024, Donald Trump mused, “To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff. And it’s my favorite word. It needs a public relations firm to help it.” He is right about needing a PR firm. Trump will have to convince Americans that prices won’t go up under his tariff regime, and that immediate or phased-in tariffs will be good for the economy and for US interests globally. In each of these areas, polls suggest he has work to do. But polls also show that Trump is on firm ground in two areas: historical support for mechanisms such as tariffs to protect the livelihoods of American workers and companies, and deep concern about unfair trade practices from other countries, particularly China.

Fifty years ago, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs began exploring views about trade and tariffs in regular surveys on foreign policy attitudes. Their questionnaires have changed over time, but the emphasis Americans place “protecting the jobs of American workers” as a very important foreign policy goal has been striking. In survey after survey, this response ranked near the top of a long list of goals, occasionally rivaling objectives such as protecting America from a terrorist attack. In a 2019 essay on Trump’s trade policies, Gallup’s Lydia Saad underscored the point, noting that promoting fair trade policies was a goal “on a par with preserving national security” and ranked higher than defending allies’ security or working with the UN.

Even as globalization gained favor in the 1990s after the fall of the Soviet Union, Americans continued to believe tariffs were necessary. Nearly half, 49%, favored them in a 1998 Council poll, while 34% supported a free trading environment. In 2004, when the Council asked whether trade was good for different entities, solid majorities said trade was good for consumers like them (73%) and for American companies (59%), but only 38% said the same for job creation and 31% for American job security. Those views have persisted.

Americans have also long been troubled by unfair trade practices. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Americans favored a variety of actions to address what they saw as unfair trading practices by Japan. China was rarely mentioned then, but for more than 30 years now, majorities or strong pluralities of Americans have told pollsters that China cheats. That sentiment is strong today. In an extensive exploration of trade attitudes in 2024, CATO found that 59% believed China engages in unfair trading practices with the US (15% said they were fair). Only 26% said Mexico’s trading practices were unfair, and 10% gave that response about Canada.

Still, Trump has much work to do. Today Americans don’t see international trade as a top problem. In a new Fox News poll, 1% of registered voters volunteered that imposing tariffs should be Trump’s top priority (the top responses were immigration and the economy, both at 13%).

In the new Harvard CAPS/Harris polls, 52% of registered voters favored imposing tariffs on China to aid US manufacturing, but 48% were opposed. Partisan differences drove the results, with just 34% of Democrats but 74% of Republicans in support. In the poll, 40%, supported new tariffs on Canada and Mexico (24% support among Democrats, 59% among Republicans). And in a new AP/NORC poll, only 29% favored a tariff on all imports, while 46% were opposed.

Before NAFTA, partisan differences on most trade issues weren’t significant. Today, attitudes are determined by whether you are on the red or blue team. In 2004, for example, partisans had similar views about whether trade was good for consumers, the economy, American companies, and American workers. By 2016, however, there were strong partisan divisions on all four. These divisions will make Trump’s sales pitch for broad tariffs hard.

Fears about higher prices are widespread. Seventy-five percent in the CATO poll said they were concerned about rising prices because of tariffs. In a February 2024 YouGov deep dive into trade attitudes, 61% said tariffs on imported good increases prices; only 23% said it did not. In the new Fox poll, 32% said imposing tariffs on imports helps the economy, while 50% said it hurts. Responses were virtually identical, 31% and 48%, respectively, in a new NPR/PBSNewsHour/Marist poll.

In his inaugural address, the President said he would “overhaul our trade system to protect American workers and families.” There is considerable uncertainty about how far Trump will go to impose tariffs, although the president has suggested that he could impose a 25% tariff on imported goods from Mexico and Canada very soon. Public objections to actions that are too broad or could raise prices suggest his public relations firm has a big task ahead.