President Donald Trump’s popular enforcement of migration law has been accompanied by a two percent gain in wages for blue-collar Americans, according to economic evidence touted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
“Thanks to @POTUS’s pro-growth, America First policies, real wages for hourly workers are up nearly 2% in the first five months of @realDonaldTrump’s second term — the strongest growth in 60 years,” Bessent declared via Twitter.
The reduced inflow of migrants, for example, helped pressure a huge meatpacking firm to sign a wage-raising deal in March for 26,000 workers.
The extra wages will spur economic growth via consumption. The income will also help young married couples to begin growing their families, setting the stage for future growth without migration.
Trump’s deputies rarely link migration with wages. But on June 15, Trump said that illegal migrants are “robbing good paying Jobs and Benefits from Hardworking American Citizens.”
Business groups readily admit that the inflow of legal and illegal migrants cuts wages.
The admission often comes when they praise migration for cutting inflation caused by wage gains. “By also tempering wage growth, immigration helped ease inflationary pressures from wages on low-skill positions,” The Conference Board of elite CEOs wrote in a June 16 report.
The report continued:
…mass deportations of unauthorized workers of 1 million individuals per year for four years would contribute to labor shortages, and by 2027 result in a net labor force shrinkage. Sectors particularly dependent upon non-citizen labor (which includes both legal and unauthorized immigrants), including agriculture, building and grounds maintenance, construction, and food preparation and serving are particularly vulnerable to labor shortages resulting from mass deportations.
The increasing likelihood of wage gains amid migration cutbacks is forcing business groups to revive strategies that were normal before the mass inflow of migrants.
For example, a new generation of labor-saving technology may allow companies to earn greater profits as they also pay higher wages. The Conference Board notes that “Research to date suggests that AI [Artificial Intelligence] may have [different] effects … resulting in minimal effects on overall labor demand.”
More funding for technical education for high school kids would also persuade more American youths to learn high-wage technical skills, such as welding and electrical work, the report said.
But the Conference Board report also pushes the easy fix of more cheap migrants, instead of the most difficult problems, noted Steven Camarota, the research director at the Center for Immigration Studies. For example, “they’re not talking about the low labor force participation as it relates to … explosion in the [claim] of disability in America,” he said.
The companies are also ignoring the lost civic pressure and status incentives for young men to work instead of relying on charity, he added.
The business groups won’t stop pushing for more migrants until they give up hope that their lobbyists win easier migration rules, he said, adding:
They might be willing to think long term, and they might be willing to restructure business and pay more, if they were convinced that they couldn’t get what they want on immigration. But that’s going to take years [of rejections].
Until then, he said, business groups will focus on “structural impediments to people in getting a job, whether it’s like, you know, educational attainment or licensing requirements and things like that,” he said.
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