Trump and Canada have a deal*

Trump said just before midnight Washington time that he has a deal with Canada to avoid 50% tariffs – for three days. Although that may not be the case a few more seconds from now. Just ask Iran. Whoops, here we go already. Canada has already disputed the existence of any deal.

If midnight strikes on the eve of August 19th without Canadian government negotiators agreeing to Trump’s demands, then Canada faces “50% tariffs,” Trump had warned. Except now, apparently, Canada has a deal with Trump. For three days. Clock it. Best to check that reservation again before leaving the house, though.

The reality is that most exports to the US from Canada are already covered under a North American free trade agreement that also includes Mexico. And the Canadian government has spent the past several months educating the country’s companies about how they can feasibly ensure that their own products can qualify under that deal. Which leaves, what exactly? Canadian booze. Canadian hockey gear. Canadian wood and paper products.

Almost all of the US’s particleboard comes from Canada. And the overwhelming majority of its softwood lumber, wood products, and paper. Way down the list as the second supplier is – China. Trump has called Canadian leadership “nasty” for not letting him grab them by the wood, but he’s also called China cheats, rip-off artists, and a “total disaster” in past remarks.

Yet you’d think that the US has actual options from the way that Trump has been behaving. Why even negotiate with Canada if that’s the case. It’s like the guy blowing up your phone asking for a date while insisting that he has better offers on the table than you. Well, go ahead, then. What’s stopping you? If you’re still camping out on the lawn, then there must be something that you really want and need – regardless of the accompanying rhetoric suggesting otherwise.

Now, apparently, there is a deal. Until there isn’t. Or until the deal becomes a different deal. Or until the deadline for the deal moves. Or until the deal is declared a victory, followed by another deadline to secure the next victory. It’s like a departure board for a flight in hurricane season.

Oh, what’s that? You want first dibs on Canadian natural resources in the interest of collective security, as reports have suggested? That’s like telling a woman that she must date you and not anyone else because you’re the safest choice.

Does Mr. Security threaten to violate you against your multiple attempts to rebuff his advances, as Trump did in repeatedly riffing about making Canada the “51st state” despite Canadians literally making it the primary issue in their last national election that resulted in a landslide win for the current Prime Minister, Mark Carney, who made it the cornerstone of his campaign?

“The US is demanding a right of first refusal on Canadian critical minerals, that Canada complete its purchase of US F-35 fighter jets, that Ottawa buy US tech such as radar planes as part of joining Mr. Trump’s planned Golden Dome missile defence system, and that Washington receive some guarantee on future supplies of oil and gas,” according to the Globe and Mail.

You want all that in exchange for holding Canadian hockey sticks and booze hostage? No wonder Canadians are willing to wait out the drama and honestly don’t even care if a deal is ever made.

In fact, this entire charade has made Canada more unified and stronger than ever. It’s finally awoken even the most sycophantic pro-US Canadians to its vassal status reality through historical kowtowing to Washington’s demands. Just a few years ago, anyone talking about diversifying interests away from US over-dependence and speaking publicly about how the US-centric world is over, would have immediately been branded some kind of foreign agent tasked with breaking up the US-led Western alliance. But Carney has made it clear that sovereignty runs through the kind of diversification of interests that much maligned patriotic Canadians have been demanding for years.

Trump’s desire for Canadian assets – and the frustration over being denied, as repeatedly exhibited by his Ambassador to Ottawa, Pete Hoekstra – has also served to draw Canadians’ attention to the various potential ways that American and other foreign interests have been actively supporting separatist groups – most recently in resource-rich Alberta – in an attempt to gain political leverage over the country’s elected decision makers and tilt the global playing field in their own favor.

Hoekstra himself has been linked to a voter ID app used by the separatist movement, which has also met with Trump’s State Department officials – as a Canadian petition on the parliamentary website states. To date, nearly a quarter-million Canadians have signed it, demanding that Hoekstra be drop-kicked out of the country for foreign interference – a phenomenon that would have been unthinkable to associate with the US until recently, despite what some of us kept trying to explain.

The trade spat with the US was also the catalyst needed for the various Canadian provinces to do away with their own provincial protectionist barriers – finally allowing free trade across the nation.

And buying Canadian – or anything BUT American – has become such a widespread activist movement that it’s been widely reported that despite Trump’s demand that Carney get American booze back on Canadian shelves, it would just sit there collecting dust at this point. It’s no wonder Canadians that don’t care about any midnight deadlines, with 66% certain that Trump wouldn’t honor it anyway, according to an Abacus poll.

So, yes: Canada and Trump have a deal. Unless something changes. Like the direction of the wind. Which is already the case, apparently. It’s actually more like a three-day free trial that can be cancelled anytime before it ends. Or even after. Doesn’t really matter anyway, since the charges will be showing up on the statement, regardless.