Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* is striking box office gold to fire up the first weekend of summer movie season, with $75-80 million domestic and at least $90 million internationally, for what increasingly looks like a $170 million global bow that could wind up closer to $180 million depending on Sunday’s attendance figures.
This image released by Marvel Studios shows, from left, Sebastian Stan, Hannah John-Kamen, Florence … More
© 2024 MARVEL.Thunderbolts* By The Numbers
Director Jake Schreier’s Thunderbolts* is penned by Eric Pearson and Joanna Calo. The film is led by super-teammates Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, Wyatt Russell, Olga Kurylenko, Lewis Pullman, David Harbour, and Hannah John-Kamen, the film also stars Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Wendell Pierce, Geraldine Viswanathan, and Chris Bauer.
The film enjoys a great A- Cinemascore from fans – which means positive word-of-mouth and repeat business – coupled with an 88% Fresh critics’ score at Rotten Tomatoes and 95% positive rating from the site’s verified ticket-holders.
That data immediately tells us this film should easily have at least a 3x final multiplier (final box office total divided by opening weekend) – so at 3x, even at $165 million Thunderbolts* could expect a final $495 million tally.
But nudge that to $170 million, and tweak that final multiplier to 3.15x, and you get to $535 million. The smaller the weekly declines and the higher that final multiplier, the higher up those box office charts Thunderbolts* climbs.
Thunderbolts* Lead Strong Weekend
This solid showing by Thunderbolts* and Marvel’s return as summer power-launcher is part of a rising-tides trend at the box office that’s seen most of the prominent box office releases enjoying good holds and sales as theatrical attendance rises.
A Minecraft Movie looks headed north of $870 million this weekend, and continues to strengthen its position as a major contender in year-end box office rankings.
Sinners meanwhile will top $230 million thanks to another amazing domestic hold, and this film will actual expand again into IMAX 70mm two weekends from now so expect it to keep beating even bullish expectations into summer.
Elsewhere, The Accountant 2 adds $10-12 million stateside, to finish with probably around $60 million or so worldwide by close of business Sunday.
Thunderbolts* vs Summer Super-Slate
Of course, this summer sees even bigger likely box office blockbusters from the recently (mostly) revived superhero genre – at least, for Marvel anyway.
The main event for comic book adaptations will almost certainly be director Matt Shakman’s Fantastic Four: First Steps, the MCU’s lead-in to their universe-resetting two-parter Avengers: Doomsday on May 1st, 2026, and Avengers: Secret Wars on May 7th, 2027, both from the studios most successful directorial collaborators to date – the Russo Brothers. Making Thunderbolts* is the opening act that looks destined to give everyone a much bigger and better show than expected.
Flying into the fray is DC Studio’s reboot hopeful Superman, which I think will be as terrific as the trailers look and confirm writer-director-co-CEO of DC Studios James Gunn’s plans for the rest of the newly minted DCU. While I don’t believe Superman will top Marvel’s fabulous foursome at the box office, I think it’ll perform more than well enough for DC and WBD to break out the champagne.
If Thunderbolts* overperforms this weekend toward $180 million, then expect it to have a much stronger run than anticipated and potentially deliver at the highest end of outcomes to challenge for top-5 status at the year’s box office. Be sure to read my full assessment of the box office potential of the summer’s slate of tentpoles, and how Thunderbolts* factors into the summer and year-end math.
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