These 6 U.S. Cities Lost The Most Airline Seats As Canada Reacts To Trump Policy

Recent tariffs imposed on Canada by President Donald Trump and his insistence that the Maple Leaf could be the flag of the 51st state have soured many Canadians against vacationing in the U.S. this year. Concerns over tightening immigration requirements and greater scrutiny of visitors have also proven a deterrent.

According to data from Cirium, an aviation analytics company, overall airline capacity is flat on routes between Canada and the U.S. for the second quarter of this year, compared to the second quarter of last year. Airlines have only scheduled a net of 197 more flights and added a net of 843 more seats from Canada to the U.S..

That is despite an overall rise in travel out of Canada.

• Airlines have increased flights from Canada to all destinations by 5.0% (from 227,348 in Q2 2024 to 238,710 flights scheduled for Q2 2025).
• Seats increased by 5.6% (from just under 25.5 million in Q2 2024 to 26.8 million seats in Q2 2025).

U.S. destinations still account for 28% of all Canadian air travel (just over 5 million seats), but there has been a noticeable decline in key tourism spots and major cities.

6 US Destinations Have Lost Over 10,000 Incoming Seats From Canada

The U.S. destinations most affected by the Canadian shift against U.S. travel in the second quarter are:

• Las Vegas lost 48,728 seats
• Fort Lauderdale lost 29,105 seats
• New York lost 24,857 seats
• Los Angeles lost 24,764 seats
• Orlando lost 17,777 seats
• Miami lost 13,444 seats

Seven other U.S. destinations have also been significantly impacted with net loses over 5,000 passenger seats:

• Boston lost 9,282 seats
• Chicago lost 6,708 seats
• Hartford, CT lost 6,460 seats
• New Orleans lost 6,394 seats
• Washington, DC lost 5,518 seats
• Kansas City, MO lost 5,497 seats
• Grand Rapids, MI lost 5,146 seats

More Losses In Q3 Airline Capacity From Canada

According to the latest airline schedule filings for the third quarter of this year, compared to the 3rd quarter last year, airline capacity from Canada has decreased in five of these cities as well.

• Los Angeles lost a further 39,618 seats
• Miami lost 12,705 seats
• Washington, DC lost 12,648 seats
• Las Vegas lost 9,083 seats
• Hartford, CT lost 6,688 seats

Additionally, in the third quarter:

• Pittsburg lost 8,301 seats
• Minneapolis/St. Paul lost 7,546 seats
• Tucson lost 7,026 seats

Some U.S. Cities Prove Resilient

Not every U.S. city has seen airline seat numbers decline, which is why the current airline capacity remains flat for the second quarter compared to last year, if only by a very narrow margin. Airlines have added over 20,000 seats capacity for the second quarter of this year to five U.S. cities:

• Chicago has gained 30,888 seats
• Denver has gained 30,156 seats
• Atlanta has gained 28,670 seats
• San Francisco has gained 23,458 seats
• Nashville has gained 22,084 seats

And three cities which see a capacity decline during the second quarter currently have a significant scheduled increase in capacity for the third quarter.

• New York gains 72,841 seats
• Chicago gains 54,838 seats
• Boston gains 21,030 seats

Booking Trends From Canada Are Worrying

However, forward scheduled capacity only represents intent to supply and can shift to meet customer response. Airlines adjust scheduled seats in keeping with demand trends, and the demand trend is significantly negative. A recent report by airline analytics company OAG shows bookings on U.S. routes through September have dropped by 70% compared to last year.

“This sharp drop suggests that travelers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute,” OAG Chief Analyst John Grant writes. “For all scheduled airlines operating between the United States and Canada any fall in consumer confidence and subsequent changes to planned travel are a concern, especially in such a large market and when taking place at such short notice.”

Where Are Canadians Going Instead?

Many Canadians are opting to travel within Canada instead, Cirium data shows airline capacity rising 7.3% on domestic routes during the second quarter. Over one million seats were added compared to the same period last year.

Europe has also gained moderately on capacity from Canada for during the second quarter. The most popular destinations are:

• Paris gains 29,266 seats to 397,257 total seats in Q2 2025
• London gains 16,076 seats to 482,704 total seats
• Munich gains 11,569 seats to 111,197 total seats
• Lisbon gains 10,874 seats to 127,314 total seats

The biggest increase airline capacity from Canada during the second quarter is on routes to Asia. Airlines have increased seats by 26.7% to over one million.

• Hong Kong has the highest number of seats added with 41,381—a 28.7% increase over last year
• Seoul has gained 22,123 seats, an 18% increase over last year
• Shanghai has gained 21,484 seats, a 110% increase over last year
• Manila has gained 15,229 seats, a 32.3% increase over last year
• Guangzhou has gained 14,040 seats, a 300% increase over last year

Some Airlines May Lower Fares As An Incentive

OAG’s Grant suggests that some airlines could lower fares over the next few months as an incentive to draw more Canadian “snowbirds” come winter.

Still, one of Canada’s ultra-low-cost carriers, Flair Airlines, reduced its U.S. capacity by nearly 40% in the second quarter and by 12% in the third quarter so far. This suggests Flair lacks confidence that low fares are enough to help Canadians forget U.S. troubles.