Jayden Daniels has impressed teammates with his poise in his rookie year. (Photo by Nic … [+]
Getty ImagesHeading into the NFL regular season, top sportsbooks gave the Washington Commanders a remote chance of winning the Super Bowl drawing comparisons to Donald Trump’s odds of defeating Hillary Clinton in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
While Trump returned to the White House this week, the upstart Commanders are two games from pulling off an improbable feat. With a new coach and a rookie quarterback in tow, Washington opened the season with odds of 150-1 to win the Super Bowl. But led by unflappable quarterback Jayden Daniels, Washington is gaining momentum this week among bettors.
As of Wednesday afternoon, moneyline wagers on the Commanders to win the NFC Championship (+240 odds) received the most tickets for Conference Championship Weekend at BetMGM. Another wager, Commanders +6 against the Eagles, ranked third in ticket volume at the sportsbook. Although Washington has the lowest volume of the four teams at FanDuel this season, Commanders’ futures have been the most popular by bet count this week, a FanDuel spokesperson told me.
A Clutch Gene
Facing the prohibitive NFC favorite in the Lions, few expected the Commanders to prevail last weekend in Detroit. Pikkit Sports, a bet data app, tracked a sample of 210,000 wagers on the game. Of that amount, only 1,774 contained the Commanders at the moneyline, according to The Athletic.
Daniels passed for 299 yards and two touchdowns in the 45-31 win, displaying poise as the final minutes elapsed. Following the win, the superlatives for Daniels flowed from the Commanders’ locker room. Former Washington coach Joe Gibbs described Daniels as a special player while running back Brian Robinson claimed he had faith in the quarterback from Day One.
But coach Dan Quinn may have said it best when he drew an analogy to the tense final moments in a close basketball game.
“He just has a different poise about him. If he was a basketball player, he’d want the last shot,” Quinn said. “As a ballplayer, he wants the ball in his hands to make the difference, and he makes great decisions with the football — that takes real mindfulness.”
Daniels enters the weekend as the favorite at DraftKings (-235) to finish the playoffs with the most passing yards of any quarterback. Daniels already has 567 yards, 168 more than Josh Allen, the next closest of any remaining signal caller. The former LSU quarterback is also the -110 favorite to record the most passing touchdowns in the postseason.
The franchise last won the Super Bowl in 1992, when Washington defeated Buffalo 37-24 in Super Bowl XXVI. Prior to the playoffs, there were odds of 75-1 on a Washington-Buffalo matchup. Those odds at DraftKings have fallen to +550.
Other D.C. Gambling News
Earlier this week, ESPN BET went live in its 20th U.S. jurisdiction when the sportsbook made its debut in Washington D.C. The sportsbook operator gained market access in the nation’s capital through a deal with Monumental Sports & Entertainment.
“We’re thrilled to launch ESPN BET in our nation’s capital and expand our presence across the Washington metropolitan area,” said Aaron LaBerge, who serves as chief technology officer at PENN Entertainment. “Along with our partner ESPN, we’re excited to introduce our deeply integrated media and betting experience and further engage with the D.C. area’s passionate sports community.”
In other news, Kalshi, a regulated exchange and prediction market, has added sports to its menu of event contracts. Kalshi made a formal request with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Wednesday for approval on sports event contracts. The request came several days after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit heard oral arguments last week on the legalities of event contracts involving political outcomes.
Kalshi offered the event contracts for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election after the appellate court upheld a previous ruling, lifting an administrative stay sought by the CFTC. The Court is expected to render a decision in the coming weeks.
On Thursday morning, a buy contract on the Eagles to defeat the Commanders went for 73 cents ($100 to win $34) at Kalshi. Alternatively, if you placed $100 on the Commanders to make the Super Bowl, the contract will deliver a payout of $217.24. The Commanders are large underdogs at 30 cents. The settlement value for all contracts is $1.00.
The Commanders were the fourth team with preseason odds of 150-1 to make a conference championship, according to the Action Network. Of the previous three, only the 1999 Rams captured the Super Bowl.
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