The US has exported democracy again. Not with bombs this time, but that doesn’t make it better

Argentina has produced a surprise. After a string of economic and currency crises, failures, scandals, and humiliations, Javier Milei – “anarcho-capitalist” (in his own words), chainsaw artist, rock star cosplayer, and also president – has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Where many observers – this one included – expected or hoped for a trouncing for the budget-slashing bad boy, he has proved us wrong.

Milei and his party La Libertad Avanza (Liberty Advances), LLA, have scored a clear victory in Argentina’s crucial midterm Congress elections. By Monday, preliminary results showed LLA gaining over 40% of the vote and leading in most of Argentinian provinces. The opposition alliance did much worse than expected, gathering less than a third of ballots cast. Turnout (68%) was the lowest since 1983. But it was not much lower than for the last midterm election (71.8%).

Milei has claimed the elections mark a “historic day” for his country. That hyperbole is due to his enormous vanity and histrionic temperament. But there is no doubt that the immediate political consequences of his resurgence are far-reaching. Now controlling enough seats in both the lower and upper houses of Argentina’s parliament, his presidential veto power cannot be challenged. In general, he is in a position to continue his radical-right-libertarian reforms. Milei’s wish list includes revising labor and contract laws, more cuts to the government and taxes, and more deregulation. LLA will still have to look for allies to have the requisite parliamentary votes to pass legislation, but he clearly has the upper hand and the momentum.

For the major political force fundamentally opposing Milei, the Peronist coalition, this election has been a severe setback. If they cannot beat him when he’s so embattled by crises and encumbered by scandals, they may never be able to stage a comeback. For that they have themselves to blame. The Milei phenomenon remains an overdue over-reaction to decades of Peronist dysfunction and sleaze. As a whole, the opposition has failed to offer a persuasive alternative not only to Milei but to much of the opposition’s own past record.

But, with the best will to be fair, there is no reason to congratulate Milei. Because it is not really his victory. One Peronist has blamed the opposition’s defeat on US President Donald Trump. Sour grapes? No. Because even if Milei’s Argentinian opponents have made their own mistakes, now and in the past, there is no doubt that Washington, and Trump personally, have intervened massively in this key election.

Indeed, as is his style, Trump has been brutally yet refreshingly honest about his intervention. He has always been clear about his bromance with Milei, having feted him at his residence in Mar-a-Lago and admiring his ruthless approach to politics. Milei, in turn, has a record of sucking up to Trump that makes even NATO’s Mark Rutte look like a vertebrate.

Recently, and more importantly, Trump has proven that Milei is a friend he is ready to come through for and in a big way. When the Milei experiment was failing and about to crash just before the elections, Trump extended a big beautiful bailout. The rescue, to the tune of about at least $20 billion, though more likely $40 billion and counting, was to “Make Argentina Great Again” according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Make no mistake, without the American bailout Argentina’s economy would have collapsed – or been “out of reserves” as the experts say – and Milei would have been toast. Trump has mumbled something about just wanting Argentina to do well, but he did not save the country. Instead, he literally saved Milei’s behind from a fiasco Milei had inflicted on Argentina.

There is no ambiguity about the above. Trump spelled it out for Argentina’s voters: the US bailout would only continue if they supported Milei. If he were to lose the US would not “be generous” anymore. Even the Financial Times has called this “a naked form of financial imperialism.”

And, besides, don’t overlook what is happening to Venezuela at this moment. Obviously, Argentina is a different country, but the two states share the harsh fate of having to live in what the US considers its Monroe-Doctrine-given backyard. With an explicitly aggressive military build-up not seen in the region since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 and a policy of what can only be called open military murder, Washington is sending a dark signal to everyone else in the neighborhood. Some are already speaking of a ‘Donroe Doctrine’. Consider both the compulsory buying of Argentina’s election and the assault on Venezuela as parts of an evolving kit of instruments of bribery and torture.

There are three important lessons here: Firstly, do not mistake the Trumpist razing of USAID for an American ‘No’ to massive meddling in other countries. The Trumpists are as meddlesome as the worst of them. They are just cruder about it. Secondly, it’s almost too obvious to mention, but the next time Americans make yet another hysterical fuss about the sanctity of their hallowed election circus being besmirched by evil foreigners, just stop listening. Trump, who was a victim of Russia Rage (aka “Russiagate”), loves to intervene. Finally, strange as it may sound, what has just happened to Argentina may indicate the limits of US power as much as its relentless, escalating aggressiveness.

To execute his Saving of Libertarian Milei, Trump had to alienate large swathes of his own base, those who believe in the original MAGA – Make America (not Argentina) Great Again. According to polls, nearly 50% of Trump’s voters are dead set against his big Milei handout. Americans, including farmers directly competing with those from Argentina, are struggling, while a foreign flattery and bombast expert syphons off their tax dollars because he is The Donald’s pet. Seems like a sustainable strategy, especially for an avowed nationalist – openly shaft your loyal own to pamper a slick foreigner. Not!

One thing that is special about Trumpism is its shamelessness: all bitter pills, no sugar coating. That means that US power is losing its ability to deceive (polite expression: “soft power”). It is now down to brute force (Venezuela) and blatant pay-offs (Argentina). It is, in other words, increasingly naked not only at home but also abroad. That’s good news.