Pre-Christmas weekend might be the calm before the box office storm, but tell that to Sonic the Hedgehog 3, Mufasa: The Lion King, Moana 2, and Wicked. The first two are set to top $70 million and $35-40 million in their respective domestic bows, as the latter boost their blockbuster runs to about $760 million and $560 million, respectively.
Ben Schwartz stars in “Sonic the Hedgehog 3.” (Paramount Pictures and Sega of America, Inc. via AP)
‘Sonic The Hedgehog 3’ In Weekend Pole Position
This is a relatively slow weekend at multiplexes (a top-5 box office performer this past week is the 10th anniversary re-release of Interstellar, to put it in perspective), but it’s turning out better than expected in some ways, and points to strong Christmas turnout ahead.
As I and many others expected, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is having a great debut weekend at the box office and winning the domestic weekend. This gives it advantages heading into the next few weeks, putting it in the pole position in the competition for highest grossing film of the holiday season.
Midway through Saturday, ticket sales already leave no room to doubt Sonic the Hedgehog 3’s victory, riding the support of family audiences and franchise fans, although it’s still not certain whether it has enough speed to best Sonic the Hedgehog 2’s 2022 opening weekend of $72 million.
That won’t matter in the long term, though. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 as the Christmas holiday and New Year’s still ahead, with more and more families on vacation from work and school. I’ll be shocked if Sonic 3 doesn’t manage to cross at least $350 million stateside by the end of its run, if not closer to $400 million.
Which all bodes well for Sonic the Hedgehog’s total worldwide box office prospects, and its shot at the title as biggest Christmas release of 2024.
‘Sonic The Hedgehog 3’ Vs ‘Moana 2’ For Christmas Crown?
Without a big over-performance internationally and a rebound with family viewers come Christmas, Mufasa: The Lion King may already be out of contention for the crown as biggest holiday release this year.
It already seems hard to imagine Mufasa: The Lion King getting to even $300 million domestic, although it seems on course for a dominating foreign bow and long legs off its A- audience grade via Cinemascore. So, despite an early stumble in North America, there’s plenty of time and room for Mufasa to come roaring back.
But for now, it appears that Moana 2 will retain the lead and momentum in the Christmas season box office race at the moment, but it’s already slowing enough that Wicked has caught up and will probably surpass Moana 2’s daily revenue soon.
While others slow, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is racing up from behind and will quickly make up a lot of ground to catch up. And I suspect it will do so faster than any of us expect, even with my own bullish prediction.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 held its international rollout til Christmas week, so it won’t start climbing the global box office charts for another week, but it’s going to be a terrific run and some much needed good news for Sony in the aftermath of Kraven the Hunter barely registering last weekend. If Sonic 3 delivers the Christmas victory I think it can achieve, that’s even better for the studio.
Whether or not Sonic the Hedgehog 3 will be as much of a crowd-pleaser and a draw for repeat family business as I think it will be remains to be seen, but I am betting the film finishes at least north of $800 million and with a strong shot at $1 billion. Christmas turnout and next weekend will tell us much about how this will turn out.
Read the full article here