Extended truce, renewed war, or endless strikes – each reshapes the region in Iran’s favor

The almost apocalyptic rhetoric from US President Donald Trump, who threatened that “a whole civilization will die tonight,” suddenly gave way to de-escalation. By the evening of April 7, it was announced that the US and Iran had agreed to a two-week ceasefire; shortly afterward, Israel confirmed it would join. Over these two weeks, negotiations toward a permanent peace deal are due to be held with Pakistan acting as mediator.

This is exactly the scenario we saw as the most likely from the very beginning of the conflict.

The war could still resume (we’ll…

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