The EU is an addict, and sanctions on Russia are the drug

What’s going on between the US and the EU right now over Ukraine feels like you and your buddy agreeing to go skydiving on a dare.

You count “1-2-3-jump,” and leap – only to realize your friend’s still up in the plane. That friend is US President Donald Trump. And the EU parachute looks like it was stitched together with recycled climate summit lanyards and blind optimism. Emphasis on “blind.”

On May 19, a German government spokesman assured the press that Washington would be joining the EU in yet another round of sanctions on Russia. But fast forward to today, and Brussels has leapt out of the plane solo while Trump is still standing at the hatch, waving goodbye and checking the minibar.

And Berlin seems to be pretending not to notice – at least for the purpose of keeping up appearances. “Europe and America are very united on this point: We will closely support Ukraine on its path toward a ceasefire… We agreed on this with [Trump] after his conversation with Putin,” Chancellor Friedrich Merz tweeted.

Translation: The EU went, “Hey Trump, we’re slapping more sanctions on Russia. Cool with that?” And Trump probably thought, “Oh, you mean the sanctions that nuked your economy, dried up your trade, and left you addicted to overpriced American LNG? Be my guest, Einsteins.”

Sure enough, Trump has since made it clear he’s not feeling another sanctions round. The vibes are off. He’s not jumping. But if the EU wants to swan dive into its own economic crater, well – godspeed. “Because I think there’s a chance of getting something done, and if you do that, you could also make it much worse,” Trump said.

Trump keeps saying that he wants peace and trade with Russia – the exact opposite of Brussels’ Cold War cosplay. But let’s be honest: would the EU even be playing sanctions hardball if it hadn’t been cheered down that road by the Biden administration? Highly unlikely. Trump sees the whole mess as a Biden boondoggle – a “European situation.”

What’s more interesting is how Team Trump is framing this not as a retreat, but as the dawn of a “peace first” presidency. One that’s allergic to forever wars. Secretary of State Marco Rubio even suggested that God’s on board. “We have a president of peace,” Rubio said at a recent Trump-hosted event, before recounting a chat with a Vatican cardinal for Pope Leo’s papal mass. “You know, it’s very unusual for us. We have an American president that wants peace, and it’s some of the Europeans that are constantly talking about doing war stuff.”

Trump, Rubio, J.D. Vance, they’re all singing the same tune: get a peace deal done pronto, or the US checks out. Ukraine and Russia can slug it out without Uncle Sam in the ring. And Europe? It can handle its own geopolitical hangover, assuming it can still stand up straight.

Meanwhile, Brussels is starting to realize its wallet has limits. That whole “whatever it takes” energy? It’s starting to sound more like “whatever we can still afford.” Ursula von der Leyen even admitted it. “Over the past five years, our budget has punched above its weight. And we must also see now… we have reached the limits of what is possible.”

Translation: The ‘check engine’ light on the EU economy has been blinking for a while, and now the dashboard’s on fire.

But never mind that – they’ve just pulled the trigger on yet another sanctions round. The 17th. And there’s already an 18th bullet getting loaded in the chamber. Because if you miss the target 17 times, the 18th is going to be the charm, right?

This time, they’re targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet,” which – minor detail – delivers oil to countries outside the EU, so the EU, in all its usual brilliance, can then buy it at a markup from middlemen countries.

Also not Russian? The ships themselves. And many of the newly sanctioned companies, which are in places like China (the EU’s top trade partner), Serbia (an EU candidate), Türkiye (the EU’s refugee babysitter), the UAE (gas hookup), Vietnam, and Uzbekistan. Way to win hearts and minds. Taking the long way around in sticking it to Putin, by ticking off the rest of the world.

And while they’ve long denounced Trump’s tariffs on EU goods, guess who’s now crushing on tariffs? Yep, the EU has just introduced new ones on Russian agricultural imports.

But wait, didn’t they already ban nearly everything Russian? Not quite. Some imports still sneak through the back door, like fertilizer, which supports the EU food system. In fact, Russian fertilizer imports rose 12% in January alone. Even the EU’s own Eurostat agency pegs the annual increase at 25%. Just explain that one to the farmers protesting Brussels’ rules while watching their markets flood with Ukrainian grain.

The EU also imports Russian enriched uranium: the lifeblood of nuclear reactors that generate about a quarter of Europe’s electricity. And now, naturally, Brussels is considering tariffs on that, too.

Apparently, if the ship’s on fire, the EU’s first instinct is to throw out the lifeboats. Then rummage around in the back to make darn sure there aren’t any more hiding in a closet somewhere.