The question of nuclear proliferation is no longer hypothetical. It is happening. The only uncertainty now is how quickly it will proceed. In the not-too-distant future, we may see 15 nuclear powers instead of today’s nine. Yet there is little reason to believe this development will fundamentally upend international politics, or bring about global catastrophe.

The invention of nuclear weapons was a technological breakthrough that reshaped global affairs. More than anything else, nuclear weapons define the military hierarchy of states, creating a threat that no government can ignore.

Perhaps their most profound consequence is the emergence of…

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