The UK’s governing Labour Party suffered a crushing defeat in one of its strongest heartland areas on Friday, prompting leader Sir Keir Starmer’s own Members of Parliament to reportedly brief that if things aren’t turned out promptly, the Prime Minister will find himself out of a job.
Insurgent left-separatist Plaid Cymru won what was seen as a key by-election (special election) in Wales on Thursday, a massive loss for the Labour Party, which has enjoyed unquestionably rock-solid support in that area for the whole history of the party.
Recognising that if they can be kicked to the curb by populist or insurgent challengers in such a safe constituency, they can be defeated literally anywhere has triggered a bout of soul-searching in the party, Labour’s de facto journal The Guardian reports, noting “senior” Parliamentarians saying if things aren’t turned around quickly, then Labour will move against its own Prime Minister.
The acid test, the paper states, will be the English local elections when over 1,600 seats are set to be contested. If those votes look anything like Labour’s performance this week, it is claimed the Starmer era will be at an end.
One of those “senior Labour MPs” cited by the paper said if there is not a serious turnaround by May, it would be a “blaring alarm” for Labour. Another Parliamentarian told the paper:
If the national vote across Wales in May is even in the ballpark of Caerphilly, there’s absolutely no way we can carry on like we are after that… Obviously, parties in government struggle in by-elections, but when your vote collapses to that extent, someone has got to take responsibility for it.
Everyone’s miserable, everyone’s despondent. It’s not as if there is an obvious sort of answer or successor to get us out of this mess. But we’re all pretty clear, we can’t just carry on as we are.
The tactical voting seen this week proves there are votes to be had for a party that can say at the ballot box it is the force to stop Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which is leading nationally in the polls but which also invokes strong opinions in its detractors, particularly as Farage vows to sweep away the status quo. The Guardian notes another Parliamentarian who told the paper that while this is an opportunity, if the public comes to believe the best bulwark against Farage is any party other than Labour, then it would be devastating for them.
They are reported to have said:
Our strategy is based on the idea we can unify progressive voters around a ‘stop Reform’ campaign,… That works so long as you remain the most viable progressive party. But if people start to think that it’s maybe another party, then suddenly that tactical voting starts to work against Labour and you get punished really badly.
While Labour presently enjoys a commanding majority in the House of Commons — the main legislative body in the UK — its support has flatlined since last year’s election. The forthcoming May elections are a particular target for Farage’s Reform, an opportunity to prove their campaigning machine is fit for service.
Yet questions over whether alleged foul play may dominate those elections abound. Many seats have already had scheduled elections delayed a year and are reportedly asking to be delayed again, prompting Mr Farage to caustically claim that those areas keenest to postpone are also those where his electoral prospects are best.
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