Topline
The S&P 500 just notched its first record in more than four months, officially overcoming the brutal spring selloff in the midst of President Donald Trump’s starkest tariff threats.
After crashing nearly 20% amid the tariff chaos, the S&P has set a new record for the first time … More
Key Facts
The leading U.S. stock market benchmark rose 0.5% to 6,173 Friday morning, topping the S&P’s previous all-time high of 6,144 set Feb. 19.
It’s a remarkable comeback from the steep losses earlier this year, as the S&P is up 27% from its 15-month low set April 7, just before Trump blinked on his most country-by-country “Liberation Day” tariffs.
The Nasdaq Composite index also set a new record, gaining 0.5% to its first all-time high since December, at 20,273.
The 30-company Dow Jones Industrial Average, the third of the major U.S. equity indexes, is still 3% short of its December apex.
Surprising Fact
The stock market records came despite a worse-than-expected inflation report out earlier Friday revealing prices rose 2.7% in May on an annual basis, far higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. That further muddies arguments for near-term interest rate cuts, which would help boost stock valuations as corporate profit margins would benefit from less expensive borrowing costs.
Key Background
The last two months’ stock market recovery largely followed the White House’s continued relent on trade, as Wall Street increasingly bet Trump would further back down on tariffs – even minting a popular phrase among traders, Trump Always Chickens Out, or the “TACO” trade. Driving Friday’s modest bounce were strong earnings results from athletic wear giant Nike and further progress in the U.S.-China trade talks. After crashing nearly 20% amid the Liberation Day ado, the S&P is up just below 3% since Trump took office in January, excluding dividends, in line with historic annualized returns.
Contra
The U.S.’ largest bank, JPMorgan Chase, anticipates a rocky patch for stocks during the second half of the year. Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, the top global strategist at the bank, forecasts the S&P will end 2025 at about 6,000, a 2% decline from Friday’s level. Lakos-Bujas cited the “lagged effects of new policies (i.e., tariffs, immigration, DOGE)” as the primary reasons for his expectation the U.S. economy may materially slow during the latter half of the year.
Further Reading
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