South Korea’s birth rate rose in 2024 for the first time in nine years, as a steep demographic decline was halted by a surge in new marriages. Meanwhile, Japan hit its lowest birth rate ever, continuing nine straight years of population decline.
Statistics Korea, the official statistical agency of the South Korean government, published data on Wednesday that showed the number of newborns per 1,000 people rose to 4.7 in 2024. The fertility rate – the average number of babies per woman – rose to 0.75 from 0.72 the previous year. The number of children born grew by 238,000 in 2024, an increase of 3.6 percent.
South Korea had the lowest birth rate in the world in 2023. This prompted the government to declare a “demographic national emergency” and implement a number of expensive social programs to encourage more marriages and more children. South Korean officials hope to increase the birth rate above 1.0 by 2030.
According to Statistics Korea, a healthy trend of increasing marriages began after the end of coronavirus lockdowns and continued through 2024, when the number of weddings grew by 14.9 percent – the biggest single-year increase since South Korean began compiling marriage data in 1970.
Marriage is a crucial leading indicator of population growth in Asian countries, and especially in South Korea, where very few children are born out of wedlock.
“There was a change in social values, with more positive views about marriage and childbirth. It is difficult to measure how much each factor contributed to the rise in new births, but they themselves had an impact on each other too,” Statistics Korea official Park Hyun-jung said at a press conference on Wednesday.
Senior Presidential Secretary for Population Planning You Hye-mi said on Wednesday that the policies of President Yoon Suk-yeol deserved credit for reversing South Korea’s population decline. You said the growing number of children born during the first two years of marriage, and an increase in two- and three-child families that began in the last quarter of 2024, were particularly encouraging signs.
You said Yoon’s emergency measures have “led the young generation to decide to have children.” She said the government would begin releasing birth rate information on a monthly basis in 2025, so the effectiveness of population growth policies could be more precisely measured.
Unfortunately for President Yoon’s fortunes, You made these remarks at the first press conference given by the presidential office since Yoon attempted to impose martial law on December 3, triggering a crisis that led to his impeachment and possible removal from office.
South Korea has an exceptionally long average lifespan, which means the decline in births over the past decade left a dangerously low number of workers per elderly retiree to finance social benefits.
On the other hand, deaths from old age still managed to outpace the encouraging birth rate in 2024, resulting in a net population decline. On its current trajectory, South Korea’s population will decline to 36.22 million by 2072 – an astonishing contraction from its peak of 51.83 million in 2020.
South Korea still has the lowest birth rate among the 38 nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a worldwide association of the world’s most prosperous economies. South Korea is the only OECD member with a birth rate lower than 1.0.
Even as South Korea found some good demographic news to celebrate, Japan posted its lowest birthrate ever in 2024. 720,988 births were reported, a decline of 5 percent from 2023.
Japan has been keeping track of demographic data for much longer than South Korea, so 2024 saw the lowest number of recorded births since 1899.
The Japanese government is keenly aware of its demographic crisis, and took measures similar to those implemented in South Korea to counter it, but those measures were much less effective. Hopes for the release of a pent-up baby boom from the Wuhan coronavirus lockdowns have apparently been dashed.
“We need to be aware the trend of falling births has not been arrested. But the number of marriages posted an increase. Given close ties between the number of marriages and the number of births, we should focus on this aspect as well,” said Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, looking for a silver lining in the dark demographic clouds.
Marriages did perk up in Japan last year, but the growth was only 2.2 percent year-on-year compared to South Korea’s 14.9 percent.
Japan still has a higher fertility rate than South Korea, with an average of 1.2 versus South Korea’s 0.75. However, Japan saw a record 1.62 million deaths in 2024, so roughly two people died for every child that was born, yielding a net population decline of almost 900,000 people.
Japanese analysts felt it was too soon to compare the effectiveness of policies in Japan and South Korea, although some said South Korea’s policy mix might have done a better job of encouraging young people to get married and making child care more affordable.
Japan’s previous prime minister, Kishida Fumio, warned in 2023 that Japan was “standing on the verge of whether we can continue to function as a society” due to demographic decline.
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