Simultaneous Russian and Ukrainian Offensives Both Halted by Drones

Russia and Ukraine simultaneously launched separate offensives in western Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast on Sunday. It’s possible one side knew the other’s attack was coming and aimed to spoil it with a swift counterattack—but it’s hard to say whether Russia or Ukraine was the prime mover.

In any event, both offensives appear to have achieved marginal results, at best. And both cost the attacker dearly.

Attacking has always been harder than defending. It’s more true than ever as drones have proliferated, creating what some analysts have described as a “transparent” battlefield where no one moves without being spotted—and where explosive drones are an omnipresent threat.

On Sunday, a Russian force apparently led by the 34th Motor Rifle Brigade or the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade attacked in six waves totaling 50 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and what the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade described as “buggies.”

Rolling in broad daylight over snow-covered fields, the Russians immediately came under attack by drones, missiles and artillery belonging to the 47th Mechanized Brigade and adjacent units. “All units of the 47th Brigade … acted as one mechanism—and gave the enemy a hard time,” the unit reported.

Ukrainian drones observed some Russians advancing as far as a key trench anchoring Ukrainian positions just east of Leonidovo in the no-man’s-land along the 250-square-mile salient Ukrainian troops occupy in Kursk. But no leading analysts have moved that position out of the “contested” category, so it’s unclear whether the Russians were able to consolidate their gains.

Across the wider front around Leonidovo, the rest of the Russian force suffered badly at the hands of the 47th Mechanized Brigade, a main user of Ukraine’s American-made armored vehicles. The brigade reported killing 45 Russians and wounding 53, a total loss of “practically a company.”

A Ukrainian force, seemingly from the 80th Air Assault Brigade or some other airborne unit, fared no better a few miles to the east. Attacking on Sunday in American-made armored trucks and Stryker wheeled fighting vehicles, the Ukrainian paratroopers aimed to reach the village of Berdin in the contested zone along the northern edge of the Kursk salient.

The Russians defended Berdin with explosive drones remotely controlled via long spools of fiber-optic cable. Operating without radio, these drones are impossible to jam via conventional meals. The drones knocked out several Strykers and hounded the Ukrainians who managed to reach Berdin.

Four days later, it’s unclear whether any Ukrainians remain in Berdin. There is some evidence of Russians marching into the village amid scattered Ukrainian dead.

“It does not appear that Ukrainian forces were able to take Berdin or any other villages, and it is unclear if they were able to expand their territorial control in Kursk,” noted Rob Lee, an analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia.

It seems simultaneous offensives simultaneously ended in bloody disaster—for the attacker.