Shavkat Rakhmonov Favorite To End 2025 As UFC Welterweight Champ

Shavkat Rakhmonov had a fight booked against UFC welterweight champion Belal Muhammad, but that contest fell apart when a bone infection left Muhammad unable to compete. Risking his No. 2 ranking in the division, a perfect record, and his title fight, Rakhmonov agreed to face the undefeated Ian Machado Garry on that card, UFC 310. The 30-year-old walked away from that matchup with the first decision victory of his 19-fight professional career. With a fight against Muhammad on the horizon, Rakhmonov is the betting favorite to end 2025 as the UFC welterweight champion.

Rakhmonov (19-0) had 18 finishes (eight knockouts, 10 submissions) in his career heading into UFC 310. Six of those stoppage victories came under the UFC banner. Some judged Rakhmonov harshly for going to decision against Garry in December and felt that some of the shine had come off the fighter from Uzbekistan. I am not one of those people.

Below is what I wrote following Rakhmonov’s win over Garry.

Two of the best in the UFC’s welterweight division delivered a technical battle in the co-main event spot of UFC 310. Both men looked very good, and there weren’t many moments where one fighter pulled ahead in the early rounds of the fight.

Both men had their moments in the later rounds, with Rakhmonov carrying the fourth and Garry taking the fifth.

Rakhmonov deserves credit for taking this fight and risking his matchup against UFC welterweight champion Belal Muhammad. What he got from the Garry matchup was experience going five rounds, as he had never been past the third round before Saturday night.

As for Garry, he faced a more established and higher-ranked foe. While he lost for the first time in his career, Garry’s stock should go up following UFC 310. He handled himself well, answered some questions about his defensive ability, and showed that his 15-0 record heading into Saturday night was not a fluke.

It won’t be a surprise to see these two rematch with UFC gold on the line at some point.

Following UFC 310, Muhammad, who was on hand for UFC 310, offered his opinion on his as yet unbooked matchup with Rakhmonov.

“The only thing I saw is that I win. Regardless of when it is, that’s how it’s going to be,” Muhammad told ESPN. “I knew that I was going to be able to beat both of them, whoever came out on top. But after watching it, getting another five rounds of seeing it, now I know it’s going to be a fight for me that I’m going to walk through.”

“I think I’m a better striker. I think I’m better everywhere,” Muhammad said. “People will sit there and call me a grappler, but in the Leon fight, I out-struck him. He was supposed to be the best striker in the division, and then I walked him down and broke him on the feet and on the ground. I had 100 more strikes than him.

“So people could say what they want to say, but I think I am the best striker in the division and, the way that I fight, it’s different than the rest of these guys. It’s hard for these guys to catch reads on me and figure me out until you see me in front of you, and then when you see me in front of you, it’s already too late because I’m hitting you.”

Muhammad (24-3-0-1) has not competed since he took the UFC welterweight title from Leon Edwards at UFC 304 in July 2024. Muhammad is on an 11-fight winning streak. His most recent loss was a January 2019 decision setback to Geoff Neal.

UFC Middleweight Champion At The End of 2025 Betting Odds

Shavkat Rakhmonov: +150

Belal Muhammad: +225

Joaquin Buckley: +550

Ian Machado Garry: +700

Leon Edwards: +800

Jack Della Maddalena: +1200

Kamaru Usman: +1600

Carlos Prates: +1800

Sean Brady: +2500

Michael Morales: +4000

Gilbert Burns: +8000

Vicente Luque: +8000

Michael Page: +8000

Stephen Thompson: +8000

Geoff Neal: +10000

*Odds via BetOnline

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