Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has officially launched his reelection bid, kicking off a campaign that could serve as a springboard — or a blockade — to a presidential run in 2028.
Shapiro highlighted how he’s “gotten shit done” in his first term — from the rapid rebuild of a collapsed bridge through Philadelphia to new tax credits — in a campaign video Thursday. And he pledged to “keep getting stuff done” in his second.
The slick two-and-a-half-minute spot went on to hit several themes Democrats are running on in 2026: growing jobs, tackling cost of living and defending abortion access. Shapiro plans to lay out the stakes for the party in a critical midterm during Thursday rallies in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with his lieutenant governor, Austin Davis.
The governor’s race will determine whether Shapiro can bolster his strongest argument for being Democrats’ 2028 standard-bearer: His ability to win sweeping victories and provide coattails to down-ticket Democrats in the country’s biggest, most important swing state.
The 52-year-old moderate Democrat has methodically climbed the political ladder from congressional aide to attorney general to top state executive over a more than 20-year career in which he’s never lost a race. His 15-point landslide victory in 2022 over Republican firebrand Doug Mastriano further burnished his reputation and put him on the national political map. And his favorability ratings in the state remain unusually high in this era of partisan polarization — a reason he was on the short list to be Kamala Harris’ running mate in 2024.
Pennsylvania-based Democratic strategist J.J. Abbott said that if Shapiro can run up the score again in a “big, important swing state” it would be a “strong credential” for the governor should he run in 2028.
Shapiro is not expected to face a significant primary challenger. He’ll likely square off against Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, who has the backing of the state GOP, in November, after Mastriano declined Wednesday to seek a rematch. A fall Quinnipiac University poll showed Shapiro leading Garrity by 15 points.
He starts his bid for a second term ranked as one of the 10 most popular governors in the country. He’s highly popular at home — polls conducted over the fall showed his approval rating among Keystone State voters was higher than other recent Pennsylvania governors at the same point in their first term. Sixty percent of Pennsylvania voters gave the governor a thumbs-up in a late-September Quinnipiac University poll, while 51 percent said he was doing a “good” or “excellent” job in an October Franklin and Marshall College poll — including half of independents and a quarter of Republicans.
But Republicans don’t intend to let Shapiro off easy in a race that will decide which party controls a critical swing state heading into 2028. Garrity has been working to turn scuttlebutt about Shapiro’s higher-office ambitions and his cascade of criticism of President Donald Trump into a campaign cudgel, accusing him of being more focused on his future than on Pennsylvania’s present. Shapiro is embarking on a book tour later this month for his forthcoming memoir that’s fueling speculation about his 2028 intentions.
The state party is also teasing a series “exposing the years of corruption and scandal” surrounding Shapiro. And operatives in both parties point to criticism Shapiro has faced over his handling of a sexual harassment complaint against a former top aide and the lack of transparency surrounding fixes and upgrades to the governor’s public and private residences after last year’s arson attack as potential attack lines for Republicans — and fodder for his potential 2028 rivals.
“Shapiro has an image of being very clean cut and ‘everybody work together.’ Anything that tarnishes that image could be very effective for voters in Pennsylvania,” said Samuel Chen, a Lehigh Valley-based GOP strategist. “If Garrity dings him hard enough, I guarantee people like [California Gov. Gavin] Newsom and [former Transportation Secretary Pete] Buttigieg are watching this and picking up tidbits they may incorporate in their own campaigns in ‘28.”
Shapiro also plans to expend significant political capital down the ballot this year — moving aggressively to help Democrats flip a quartet of congressional seats that could decide control of the House in 2027. Democrats are hoping his popularity will also help them secure a trifecta in Harrisburg — one that could help Shapiro pad his policy agenda ahead of 2028.
He’s exerted dominance over the state Democratic Party, installing his allies in top posts, infusing the party with $250,000 to improve its infrastructure and outreach efforts and endorsing across competitive races — including the crowded Democratic primary to unseat Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. Those efforts have drawn some pushback from prominent Democrats in the Lehigh Valley who are backing other candidates in the five-way field. But those same Democrats say they’ll still support Shapiro.
Shapiro also enters the election year having raised $23 million in 2025, including $10 million over the last three months as he geared up for his campaign launch, and has a sizeable $30 million campaign war chest. His team said he raised more money and had more cash on hand at the end of last year than any Pennsylvania gubernatorial campaign on record. Garrity had yet to report her fundraising numbers as of Wednesday.
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