Senate Democrats keep talking about Texas and Florida.
As they look for alternative paths to keep the majority — with polling growing dismal for them in Montana — more and more Democrats are pointing to the two southern states as possible offensive targets.
Polls suggest tight races as incumbent Sens. Rick Scott of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas fight for reelection. But ad spending is a zero-sum game, and both Florida and Texas are massive states with pricey media markets. Seriously competing in either would mean less for Democratic candidates in key battleground races that are sure to tighten in the final weeks.
And dividing spending between both Texas and Florida could mean failing to reach a critical mass in either place. But few Democrats are willing to provoke consternation by publicly picking one over the other. They want to have it all — a “two-state strategy,” as Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) called it.
“We should go for the gold, reach for the stars,” he said.
“I’m glad that we’re looking at not just one or the other, but both,” said Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) “I don’t think it’s a matter of choosing,” declared Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), a former chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
“We should take a positive view in both and invest in both,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.).
“I’m bullish on Florida and Texas, and I want you to publish that,” Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.).
But behind the unified optimism, there’s little clarity on how to actually go after the two states. Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), the chair of Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, has said he is looking at investing in both — but is quick to note that those decisions will be driven by a number of metrics, and there are plenty of other competing races Democrats need to fund.
“We’re looking at numbers, and we’re making investments where we think we get our best bang for our dollar,” Peters said. “They’re both great opportunities for us.”
Both states are large and heavily populated, with several of the country’s most expensive media markets — which will only get more costly as the election nears. That means Democrats would need to spend huge sums to launch credible offensives in Florida or Texas, especially if they try for both.
And even then money is no guarantee for success. Then-Rep. Val Demings spent some $49 million on ads in Florida in the 2022 midterms, according to AdImpact, a media tracking firm, and lost by double-digits. In Texas in 2020, Democrats collectively spent $43.8 million on ads, and MJ Hegar lost by 10 points.
When asked whether the party had sufficient resources to play in both states, the Democratic senators’ answers were less confident. Many said they weren’t sure what it would take to be truly competitive or that they trusted the DSCC and Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer to figure it out.
“It’s a resource issue,” Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) said. “We’re trying to raise more money.”
Pressure is mounting on Democrats to figure out a strategy for going on offense in Texas or Florida — or, they claim, both — as Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-Mont.) reelection bid looks increasingly difficult. Polling has turned against him, and the state’s media markets are effectively maxed out. National Democrats have made no serious effort to flip any Republican seats, given the number of states they’re trying to defend. If Tester loses, Senate Republicans would almost certainly have an outright majority.
The sudden scramble to look at Texas or Florida is inspired by both the states themselves and the candidates. Democrats are excited about both Rep. Colin Allred of Texas and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell of Florida, and Allred in particular has become a fundraising dynamo. And Cruz and Scott only narrowly beat back their opponents in 2018.
But national Democrats have largely stayed out of the two states this cycle. In Florida, for example, Scott has spent or booked almost $13 million on ads, while the Mucarsel-Powell campaign has put in $8 million, according to AdImpact. The Scott-supporting super PAC, Project Rescue America, has spent just under $3 million. In Texas, Cruz has millions in help from Club for Growth’s PAC, the state Republican Party and others — while Allred is effectively fending for himself.
The late attention is prompting some frustration from Democrats who wanted to see it months ago, when ad rates were more affordable.
“Late cash is inefficient cash. Democrats have not figured out the lesson that $100 million in the last 30 days isn’t as important as $20 million five months ago,” said Democratic Miami-based pollster Fernand Amandi. “We have seen this movie before.”
Kimberly Leonard, Nicholas Wu, Anthony Adragna and Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.
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