Saudi Arabia on Wednesday signed a defense pact with its longtime ally Pakistan, a move clearly inspired by Israel’s strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar last week.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the de facto chief executive of Saudi Arabia, signed the defense pact in Riyadh on Wednesday with visiting Pakistani Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif.
A joint statement from the Saudi and Pakistani Foreign Ministries said the agreement “aims to develop aspects of defense cooperation between the two countries and strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression.”
The joint statement, and the pact itself, did not specifically mention the Israeli airstrike on Doha, Qatar, last Tuesday, but the strike was the number one topic of conversation at a joint emergency summit of the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Doha on Monday.
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia were both in attendance. Both condemned the Israeli airstrike, although the Saudis were fairly low-key about it. The joint communique produced by the summit was rather temperate in its wording, strongly objecting to the Israeli action without threatening any firm response, or obliging the summiteers to take any specific action.
“In my statement, I strongly condemned Israel’s aggression in the Middle East, reaffirmed Pakistan’s unwavering solidarity with Qatar, and reiterated our firm commitment to peace in the region, including our resolute support for a just and lasting two-state solution,” Sharif said after the summit.
Euronews noted on Tuesday that some dramatic actions were discussed before and during the summit, including “closing airspace to Israeli flights or downgrading ties with Israel,” but despite the constant talk of “unity” in Doha, there was little consensus on taking action.
In the end, the joint communique urged Arab and Muslim states to “make all possible legal and effective measures to prevent Israel from continuing its actions against the Palestinian people.”
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which counts both Saudi Arabia and Qatar as members, held its own mini-summit on the sidelines of the Doha event and vaguely resolved to “activate the mechanisms of joint defense and the Gulf deterrence capabilities.”
Saudi Arabia’s defense pact with Pakistan could be considered a new mechanism of joint defense, and Pakistan’s nuclear weapons would certainly boost Gulf deterrence capabilities.
A senior Saudi official implied Pakistan’s nukes were part of the deal in comments to the Financial Times (FT) on Wednesday, saying Riyadh and Islamabad were jointly committed to “utilize all defensive and military means deemed necessary depending on the specific threat.”
“The agreement states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,” the Pakistani and Saudi foreign ministries said in a joint statement Wednesday.
As the joint statement acknowledged, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have enjoyed a mutual defense partnership for nearly eighty years, but Wednesday’s pact was a historic strengthening of that relationship, which has never before risen to the level of guaranteed joint response to any “aggression.” Pakistan has never signed such an agreement with any other country.
“Pakistan previously maintained mutual defence treaties with the United States during the Cold War, but they crumbled by the ’70s. Even with China, despite extensive defence cooperation, Pakistan lacks a formal mutual defence pact,” senior fellow Asfandyar Mir of the Stimson Center in Washington, D.C. told Al Jazeera News on Thursday.
Other analysts told Al Jazeera that the Saudi-Pakistani pact could pave the way for Pakistan to sign similar agreements with other Middle Eastern states – which could be a troubling prospect, given the increasing range of Pakistan’s nuclear missiles.
“Pakistan already has a credibility problem in Washington, and this agreement won’t reduce it,” security analyst Sahar Khan told Al Jazeera, recalling that the Biden administration slapped Pakistan with sanctions on seven different occasions for developing longer-range, and potentially nuclear-capable, ballistic missiles.
One reason the Saudi-Pakistani deal could increase tensions is that Pakistan’s nuclear program has long operated under the implicit, but very strong, notion that its weapons were purely meant as a deterrent to its nuclear-armed neighbor and rival, India.
If Pakistan begins extending its nuclear umbrella over other nations, that understanding will be null and void. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia could now find itself embroiled in Pakistan’s disputes – and Pakistan very nearly went to war with India a few months ago.
The Saudis have been cultivating closer ties with India over the past decade, but those efforts could be severely hindered by Riyadh’s new commitment to fight Islamabad’s battles. India may also fear that Pakistan will grow bolder with increased military, diplomatic, and financial support from Saudi Arabia. Contrary to the rhetoric of the Doha summit, mutual defense pacts and demonstrations of “unity” can destabilize a region, as easily as they can stabilize it.
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