Russia Retains Strategic Syria Bases Amidst Renewed Violence

The worst violence to plague Syria in years occurred in the country’s coastal region, where Russia has long maintained two strategically critical military bases that it’s hoping the new authorities in Damascus allow let it to keep.

Violent clashes between loyalists of deposed President Bashar al-Assad and the security forces of Syria’s caretaker government and allied pro-government militias began on Thursday after the former ambushed members of the latter. The resulting government crackdown killed at least 1,000 people—745 civilians, 148 Assad loyalists, and 125 government forces—by Saturday, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor. If these figures are even remotely accurate, these clashes were the worst bout of violence and mass murder, especially against innocent civilians, that war-torn Syria has endured for years, not just since Assad’s more recent fall in December.

Latakia and Tartus are the coastal heartland of Syria’s minority Alawite sect, which makes up approximately 10 percent of the population. The Assad family comes from this sect and derived significant support from it throughout its 54-year rule, which ended on December 8 when Assad fled to Moscow via Russia’s Hmeimim airbase in Latakia.

Assad fled an opposition coalition led by the Sunni Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which his regime and Russia ruthlessly bombed in the northwestern Idlib province for years during the civil war, killing many civilians in the process. Former HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani when he led the group, is now Syria’s interim president.

The HTS-led takeover undoubtedly led to some trepidation among Alawites, who understandably feared a reckoningfor the crimes Assad committed in their name. At the same time, other Alawites doubtlessly welcomed the overthrow of the dictator, hoping, along with their fellow citizens, for a better future for their war-weary country.

These brief but lethal clashes and massacres have rekindled fears of sectarian violence and possibly a resumption of the civil war that began 14 years ago.

Russia may hope Syria can avoid this to ensure its continued access to and security for Hmeimim and the Tartus naval base in the eponymous province. During the fighting, government forces imposed curfews in both areas, which began in Jableh near Hmeimim. Several local people sought shelter in that airbase, waiting hours at the gates until the Russians let them on the premises. According to Al Jazeera, they included civilians and members of the former regime.

There were no indications the bases were impacted or targeted throughout the violence that occurred around them in recent days. That could bode well for the future of Russia’s military presence in Syria.

“The HTS-led interim government was in serious discussions with Russia to create a modus vivendi between Moscow and the new rulers in Damascus,” Nicholas Heras, senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, told me. “Russia is unlikely to constitute a threat to HTS, and HTS does not want to open hostilities with the Russians when there are so many problems confronting it in Syria.”

“HTS can barely manage an unruly coalition of rebel groups, and at this point, there are more advantages for HTS to normalize with Russia and receive Putin’s tacit support to solidify HTS rule over most of the country,” Heras said.

Mere days before the clashes, the Wall Street Journal reported Russia was “chasing a deal” to retain hold of Hmeimim and Tartus. The report noted that uncertainty over the Trump administration’s Syria policy has resulted in emergency funding for the new Syrian government stalling, giving “an unexpected opportunity for Russia to not only maintain its presence but boost it.”

Russia has already printed $23 million worth of Syrian currency to help the new cash-starved government, demonstrating its usefulness to the new leadership in Damascus.

“The chief prize for Moscow would be to hold on to its military bases in Syria, which significantly expand its reach while it is facing setbacks in the war in Ukraine,” the report noted.

Aron Lund, a fellow with Century International and a Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, noted that Russia-Syria relations “largely revolve around the base discussions” in the immediate and uncertain post-Assad era.

While Moscow can provide Damascus valuable services in return for continued basing rights, as the Wall Street Journal report outlines, Lund doesn’t see Russia playing as significant a role in Syria as it did under Assad.

“In theory, I guess the Russians could try to make themselves useful, offering to play a middleman role and help calm things down. But that seems less likely,” Lund told me. “They’re just trying to keep their heads down and figure out a way to keep the bases at this point.”

For now, it’s unlikely that either base will face any “immediate risk” or security threats.

“They would probably be difficult to defend against a concerted attack, but it’s unlikely that any Syrian ex-rebel faction would dare mess with the Russians,” Lund said. “It’s clearly something Sharaa would object to. It would get them in deep trouble.”

Nevertheless, “some angry radical” taking “a few potshots” or firing mortars at the Russian facilities remains a possible risk. However, even that would not present an existential danger to the overall Russian deployment. After all, Hmeimim already came under attack by drones, including from Idlib, during the civil war.

At the same time, the resumption of hostilities in Syria could change everything, and the Russian military could suddenly find itself in a precarious and vulnerable position.

“Of course, if things really do go south and you have a massive re-eruption of the civil war, then all bets are off,” Lund said. “Then the bases could be targeted in a more serious fashion. But that doesn’t seem to be where we’re headed right now.”

“Things will likely calm down, for now, but these massacres have done a great deal of damage to Syria’s internal cohesion,” he added.

“There’s more to come.”