The Russian currency has also surged against the euro, boosted by government policy support
The Russian ruble surged to a two-year high against the US dollar on Thursday, buoyed by strong trade inflows and supportive government policies, according to analysts.
The ruble was trading below 75 to the dollar, marking its strongest level since 2023. The currency also strengthened to 86.5 against the euro, gaining more than 5%.
The rally caps two months of rising fortunes for the ruble, partly driven by optimism over peace talks on Ukraine. Two rounds of direct talks between Moscow and Kiev took place in Istanbul in mid-May and early June, but a third has yet to be scheduled.
Analysts say structural and seasonal factors also continue to support the Russian currency.
”Ruble strength is supported by high exports and a broad supply of foreign currency, alongside low imports and weak demand,” Mikhail Zeltser of BCS World of Investments told RBK on Thursday. “Funding rates for refinancing debt and foreign trade operations are also significant,” he said.
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Government policy is playing a key role as well, according to experts. Exporters are now required to repatriate earnings for another year, and the Central Bank has raised summer limits for hard currency sales under the budget rule. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains under pressure globally, hovering near a three-year low amid persistent trade tensions.
PSB’s Denis Popov said the ruble has continued to climb despite rising geopolitical risks. He pointed to shifts in US foreign policy rhetoric under President Donald Trump as a contributing factor but noted that investors seem to be brushing off those concerns.
Analysts also cite increased foreign currency sales by major exporters in recent days, possibly linked to firms choosing not to use rubles for dividend payouts.
Alor Broker’s Igor Sokolov dismissed speculation of technical errors behind the ruble’s rapid rise. “This is part of a global shift,” he said, noting that “macroeconomic reasons (are) driving ruble appreciation.”
Some experts see room for further gains. Sokolov projected the ruble could strengthen toward 70 to the dollar, though he noted it may take time.
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