Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly directed Meta to build a prediction market app that would compete with rapidly growing gambling sites like Polymarket and Kalshi.
The New York Times reports that Meta is developing a new prediction markets application internally called “Arena,” according to two employees with knowledge of the project who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The app would operate independently from Meta’s existing social networking platforms, which include Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger.
The effort represents part of a broader initiative by Zuckerberg to create new standalone applications based on emerging online social behaviors. Meta aims to attract users to Arena by directing its massive existing audience toward the new platform. More than 3.56 billion people visit one or more of Meta’s apps daily, though that saturation has raised questions about whether the company’s core platforms have room for further growth.
Users of the Arena app would not initially wager real money, according to one person familiar with the plans. Instead, the application would likely rely on a video-game-like points system for making predictions, though Meta has not ruled out the possibility of introducing real money betting in the future.
Arena is among several experimental applications Meta is currently testing. Another project, called Meta Photos, would function as a separate app for creating new types of media using AI, the employees said. Meta declined to comment on the projects.
Meta has previously experimented with prediction markets. In 2020, the company released Forecast, a crowdsourced prediction market app that encouraged users to make guesses about world events during the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. The app was positioned as a tool for sharing crowdsourced knowledge and used a points system for predictions. Meta shut down Forecast in 2022.
Since that time, prediction markets have grown into a significant cultural phenomenon. They have been featured during major sporting events and the Golden Globes telecast. In 2025, Kalshi and Polymarket combined to draw $50 billion in online trades. That figure has already exceeded $130 billion in 2026.
This rapid growth has attracted attention from numerous companies seeking to capitalize on the trend. Prediction market operators can generate substantial revenue by collecting fees on each bet placed. Traditional gambling companies including FanDuel and DraftKings have begun offering prediction markets, as has cryptocurrency exchange Gemini. Trump Media & Technology Group, President Trump’s social media company, has also announced plans to enter the prediction market space.
The explosion of betting activity on prediction markets has drawn significant legal scrutiny. Because these platforms offer odds on virtually any outcome, they create opportunities for individuals to exploit inside information for profit.
Breitbart News previously reported that a bi-partisan group of lawmakers seeks to ban sports betting on prediction market platforms.
Read more at the New York Times here.
Lucas Nolan is a reporter for Breitbart News covering issues of AI, free speech, and online censorship.
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