As with all modern presidencies, President Trump can enjoy greater comforts in his second term than in his first term, simply by no longer needing to posture for re-election.
This marks the first time in President Trump’s political career that he can ease off constantly viewing data estimating his favorability against other candidates, and his approval rating.
Still, President Trump’s approval rating bears significance, as it pertains to his legacy – which will be defined, in part, by the 2026 and 2028 election outcomes.
In the 2024 election, President Trump captured 49.8% of the popular vote, becoming only the second Republican since 1988 to win the popular vote.
49.8% of the popular vote in 2024 represented significant growth for President Trump – compared with President Trump’s alleged 46.8% of the popular vote in 2020, and President Trump’s 46.1% of the popular vote in 2016.
According to Real Clear Politics polling data, President Trump’s approval rating climbed to 50.5% on January 27, 2025.
At its core, Real Clear Politics can be distinguished as the sole, nonpartisan website to publish a near-daily political polling data aggregate. “RCP” combines dozens of well-known pollsters, averaging their data into one central figure.
On election day in 2024, RCP projected President Trump would win the presidency, carrying 287 electoral votes.
RCP fell short and did not accurately predict the electoral outcomes only in Michigan and Wisconsin, where its polling aggregate predicted President Trump would lose by less than 1% of the vote.
During the 2004 election, four years after RCP launched its website, “both the George W. Bush and John Kerry’s presidential campaigns acknowledged to reporters it was the best metric of where the race actually stood,” per The Washington Examiner.
Today, more than four months into his second presidential term, President Trump’s approval rating is holding steady, around 50%.
President Trump’s approval rating has not fallen below 45.2% during his second presidential term, per RCP.
Currently, President Trump’s approval rating stands at 47.5% – climbing, almost daily, over the last three weeks, per RCP.
By contrast, at this juncture in President Trump’s first term, his approval rating stood at only 39.9%.
Per RCP, President Trump’s first term approval rating hit a low of 37.0% on December 13, 2017, and hit a high of 47.3% on March 27, 2020.
On the contrary, Joe Biden exited his presidency with an approval rating of only 39.0% on January 20, 2025 – approaching Biden’s all-time low approval rating of 37.1% on July 18, 2022, per RCP.
Most notably, President Trump’s approval rating has trended about five percent higher, on average, in his second term, compared with his first term – indicating real growth and momentum for MAGA.
Moreover, nearly one decade since President Trump announced his first presidential candidacy, no statistical signs indicate that President Trump’s base of over 77 million supporters would consider abandoning him.
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