Private sector employment increased by just 22,000 jobs in January, falling short of economist expectations but landing closer to a rapidly declining break-even threshold for job creation, according to ADP’s National Employment Report released Wednesday.

The figure came in well below the consensus forecast of 45,000 jobs and marked a deceleration from December’s revised 37,000. However, recent research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas suggests the benchmark for evaluating these numbers may have shifted dramatically.

The Dallas Fed estimates that the monthly job growth needed to keep the labor market in balance—known as the break-even…

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