We are witnessing an unmistakable shift in the US housing market, not a bubble pop like 2008, but a market regime change characterized by buyers retreating as inventory rises and affordability remains strained. Recent data from Redfin shows that roughly 40,000 US home-purchase agreements were canceled in December, representing about 16.3% of homes that went under contract–the highest level for that month since at least 2017.
Excess demand and historically low mortgage rates drove the housing market until around 2023. Trends that cannot continue forever eventually break down when the cyclical structure turns. The peak in housing demand, much…
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