Post Positions, Odds, And The Hot Battle Inside

Returning to Churchill after serving his three-year ban, six-time Derby winner Bob Baffert notably drew the rail with his athlete Citizen Bull at Churchill Downs’ post position soiree Saturday evening, and his arguably stronger entry, Rodriguez, was slotted just three stalls to the right, square in the four-hole. Both are talented horses, but they will be served the full Derby experience of having a ton of traffic to deal with pretty much instantly, on May 3 at Churchill.

The morning line favorite at 3-1, Journalism, trained by Michael McCarthy and ridden by Umberto Rispoli, has drawn the 8-hole in Churchill’s massive gate, with his nearest early-odds rivals, Sandman (6-1) and Sovereingty (5-1), booked into stalls 17 and 18, respectively. But before we dive into what those positions might offer those athletes, below, the full draw.

(Post Position, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, Morning Line)

1. Citizen Bull, Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia, 20-1

2. Neoequos, Saffie Joseph Jr., Flavien Prat, 30-1

3. Final Gambit, Brad Cox, Luan Machado, 30-1

4. Rodriguez, Bob Baffert, Mike Smith, 12-1

5. American Promise, D. Wayne Lukas, Nik Juarez, 30-1

6. Admire Daytona, Yukihiro Kato, Christophe Lemaire, 30-1

7. Luxor Café, Noriyuki Hori, Joao Moreira, 15-1

8. Journalism, Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli, 3-1

9. Burnham Square, Ian Wilkes, Brian Hernandez Jr., 12-1

10. Grande, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 20-1

11. Flying Mohawk, Whit Beckman, Joe Ramos, 30-1

12. East Avenue, Brendan Walsh, Manny Franco, 20-1

13. Publisher, Steve Asmussen, Irad Ortiz Jr., 20-1

14. Tiztastic, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 20-1

15. Render Judgment, Kenny McPeek, Julien Leparoux, 30-1

16. Coal Battle, Lonnie Briley, Juan Vargas, 30-1

17. Sandman, Mark Casse, Jose Ortiz, 6-1

18. Sovereignty, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 5-1

19. Chunk of Gold, Ethan West, Jareth Loveberry, 30-1

20. Owen Almighty, Brian Lynch, Javier Castellano, 30-1

Also eligible

21. Baeza, John Shirreffs, Flavien Prat, 12-1

(Source: Churchill Downs, 4/26/2025)

It was Into Mischief’s son Tappan Street, the well-regarded winner of the Florida Derby and a smoking hot rival to the current top favorites, who changed the face of the 2025 field by favoring a leg on a recent five-furlong work. His jockey Luis Saez flagged that favor for the team, and very shortly, the veterinarians were unequivocal: condylar fracture, a common non-career-ending result of repetitive stress on the cannon bone, but requiring surgery. It’s not yet been announced how or whether Tappan Street’s fracture is “medial,” which is to say, whether it spirals further up the leg, but it’s not now thought that this is the end of Tappan Street’s athletic career. Result: Tappan Street bowed out, clearing the way for alternate Render Judgement, trained by Kenny McPeek. If another scratch occurs this week, it’s Baeza’s turn to move into the gate.

Because of its sheer size as the proper debut of the three-year-old Class of 2025, the Kentucky Derby is a battle any way you cut it, but we can generalize that there are four basic elements to it. The first and greatest element is the traffic. By definition, there’s traffic everywhere, in every horse race, but in the Derby it is really everywhere, at every moment, and that puts even the less-lightly raced, more mature three-year-olds at a disadvantage. None of them have ever faced traffic on this scale before. Period.

What that means for a deep closer on the order of Sandman is that the danger of his leaving himself too much to do in the last three furlongs of the mile-and-a-quarter.

A similar danger faces Sovereignty, who finished the Florida Derby strongly, but nevertheless behind the now-withdrawn Tappan Street. Trainer William Mott characterized Sovereignty this way on April 19 to the press: “He’s been a deep closer, so we always have the impression those horses will go further.”

And the corollary to that in the Kentucky Derby is: Those horses will go further if, given the traffic they will likely encounter, they can. This is what the trainers mean when they say a horse has “tactical speed,” or, the ability to downshift, step through a bit of daylight, and shift into high gear to bring the battle.

To the extent that any three-year-old in this year’s crop has distinguished himself as having that, Santa Anita Derby winner and top Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism certainly seems to have clocked enough wins (4 in 5 career outings) for us to assume that he has that.