Rassemblement National leader Jordan Bardella is on course to win the upcoming French presidential election as the Macronist establishment continues to decline and bleed voters to the far left.
The latest Odoxa-Mascaret opinion survey of over a thousand voters for the Public Sénat broadcaster, on the race to replace Emmanuel Macron when he is termed out in 2027, projects National Rally (RN) President Jordan Bardella as the winner of both rounds of voting.
According to the survey, Bardella holds a commanding lead in the first round at 32 per cent, nearly double that of his next-closest rival, former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, at 17 points. The Mayor of Le Havre and leader of the neo-liberal Horizons party would also fall to the RN leader in a potential second-round matchup by 52 to 48 per cent.
Philippe, who has been tipped as the centrist candidate best placed to continue Macron’s legacy of blocking the populist right and the socialist left from power, has seen his support in the first round fall by four points since March.
This puts his ability to even reach the second round in jeopardy, with far-left La France Insoumise (France in Rebellion/LFI) leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon nipping at his heels with 16 per cent support.
Given that the two-round system merely selects the top two performers from the first round, pressure will likely mount on Philippe to solidify his lead over Mélenchon or face the establishment siding with another centrist candidate, such as former PM Gabriel Attal, or current Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin, both of whom came out this week in favour of limiting immigration in apparent bids to court centre-right voters to their side.
The declining support for Philippe comes in the wake of France’s National Financial Authority announcing earlier this month that it was investigating the Horizons party leader over alleged embezzlement of public funds, favouritism, and illegal conflict of interest over a €2 million contract his Mayoral government in Le Havre handed out to a charity run by a political ally.
While allies of Mélenchon hailed him gaining on Philippe, it is likely that Rassemblement National headquarters is even more pleased with the far-left leader’s polling rise than anyone besides the 74-year-old radical himself.
Indeed, a previous Odoxa survey in which the pollster put Mélenchon up against Bardella in a hypothetical matchup saw the RN leader perform best, demolishing the LFI leader by a staggering 74 per cent to 26 per cent.
However, there does remain some uncertainty over whether Mr Bardella will even be on the ballot when French voters head to the polls next year. Indeed, the 30-year-old rising star remains his party’s “plan B” option following his political mentor, Marine Le Pen.
Le Pen, a three-time failed presidential candidate, is facing a potential ban from running in the 2027 race over allegations that she and her party misused European Union funds for political activities in France, which a court last year found warranted a five-year prohibition from standing in any election in Europe. The longtime RN leader is currently appealing the decision, and a ruling is expected sometime this Summer.
Regardless, the strong showing for the party’s “plan B” demonstrates the trajectory of politics in France and maybe even further afield, with a potential populist victory next year in Paris perhaps foreshadowing similar movements in fellow Western European nations such as Britain and Germany.
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