Minnesota’s races for governor and U.S. Senate are both within the margin of error, putting the fraud-battered state in play for Republicans up and down the ballot, according to a new poll.
The Co/efficient survey, fielded September 14-15, found Democrat Sen. Amy Klobuchar at 47 percent and Republican House Speaker Lisa Demuth at 45 percent in the race to succeed retiring Gov. Tim Walz. In the Senate contest, Democrat Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan led Republican Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, 43 percent to 42 percent.
Dustin Grage, a Minnesota-based Republican strategist and Townhall columnist, circulated the numbers, arguing they show the party competing statewide.
“Minnesota is in play for Republicans up and down the ballot,” Grage wrote.
Both margins fall inside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.38 percentage points. The survey of 833 likely voters also found Republicans narrowly ahead on a generic Senate ballot, 47 percent to 46 percent, and recorded President Donald Trump at 37 percent job approval, with 55 percent disapproving. Co/efficient, a Republican-aligned firm, said the series is independent and not sponsored by any candidate or party committee.
The findings run well ahead of where public averages have placed the Democrats. The RealClearPolling average puts Klobuchar ahead by 11.5 points, 50 percent to 38.5 percent, and ranks the governor’s race “Safe Dem.”
An Emerson College Polling survey found Klobuchar leading Demuth 51 percent to 38 percent, with the Democrat holding a 27-point edge among independents. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said independents broke heavily for the senator in every matchup tested.
“Independent voters in the race for Governor support Amy Klobuchar against potential Republican opponents, by 27 points against State Rep. Demuth, and 40 points against Mike Lindell,” Kimball said.
A Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll showed a narrower spread, with Klobuchar at 48 percent and Demuth at 40 percent. That survey found Demuth ran strongest of the Republicans tested against Klobuchar, and it recorded double-digit shares of undecided voters. The most recent public poll, conducted by TIPP Insights and completed September 2, had Klobuchar ahead 49 percent to 40 percent.
Grage is president of Honeyhive Strategies, describes himself on X as “The Minnesota guy with the receipts,” and has said repeatedly that Republicans will “flip Minnesota red in 2026.”
Minnesota Democrats have spent the past year grappling with sprawling fraud scandals tied to Medicaid and pandemic aid, with allegations that hundreds of millions of dollars earmarked for welfare programs were stolen. Walz dropped his reelection bid in January amid the widening scandal, opening the seat Klobuchar entered days later. Demuth, who has pressed the fraud issue as House Speaker, defeated President Donald Trump-endorsed MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell in the August Republican primary.
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