A new statewide survey conducted by J.L. Partners shows the 2026 New York gubernatorial race between Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik and Democrat incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul effectively tied, as voters express growing dissatisfaction with the current administration’s performance.
According to a newly released J.L. Partners poll conducted November 9–10, 2025, among 500 likely voters in New York, Republican challenger Elise Stefanik is running nearly even with Governor Kathy Hochul in a hypothetical 2026 head-to-head matchup. When respondents were asked who they would support if the candidates were Kathy Hochul and Elise Stefanik, 46% chose Hochul, 43% backed Stefanik, and 11% were undecided. The poll’s 4.4% margin of error places the race in a statistical tie.
Governor Hochul’s approval ratings reflect broad dissatisfaction. Statewide, only 11% of voters strongly approve of her job performance and 29% somewhat approve, while 54% disapprove—including 39% who strongly disapprove. Among Republican voters specifically, just 8% approve of her leadership, with 91% expressing disapproval, 81% of them strongly.
This result echoes a trend previously observed in other independent surveys. An October 2025 poll from the Manhattan Institute also showed Stefanik narrowly ahead of Hochul, 43% to 42%, and leading Hochul’s lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado, by six points. That poll described Stefanik’s lead as unprecedented in a state long considered a Democrat stronghold.
On the question of reelecting Hochul in 2026, a clear majority—55%—believe it is “time for someone new.” Just 18% would “definitely vote to reelect” her, while another 19% said they would “probably vote to reelect.”
Elise Stefanik’s favorability ratings vary significantly between general election voters and the Republican primary base. In the statewide poll, 22% of likely voters said they had never heard of her, while 37% viewed her favorably (25% very favorable, 12% somewhat favorable) and 32% unfavorably. Among Republican primary voters, however, Stefanik commands overwhelming support: 61% view her very favorably and 16% somewhat favorably, with just 12% expressing an unfavorable view.
This polling comes just days after Stefanik formally announced her candidacy for governor. Her campaign has centered on themes of economic decline and public safety, criticizing Hochul’s record on taxes, crime, and the cost of living. Stefanik, a former House Republican Conference Chair, has emphasized her bipartisan appeal and has received endorsements from a broad coalition of New York Republicans, including former Governor George Pataki, GOP Chairman Ed Cox, and more than 30 members of the State Assembly.
The backdrop to this contest includes rising intraparty tensions for Hochul, who faced public backlash at a Zohran Mamdani campaign rally in spite of her endorsement of the Democratic Socialist then-candidate for New York City mayor, now mayor-elect. At a rally in Queens earlier this fall, Hochul was heckled with chants of “Tax the rich!” and faced criticism for mispronouncing the candidate’s name. Mamdani has not endorsed Hochul in return.
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