Republicans are surging after President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address and might be in position to defy history in the midterm elections, polling shows.
The Harvard Harris poll found Republicans are in a much better position heading into midterm elections than previously assessed.
The poll asked respondents if the congressional election were held today would they be more likely to vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress, finding likely midterm voters split down the middle. The results mark an eight-point swing towards Republicans in the Harvard Harris poll since January when 54 percent of respondents replied they would be more likely to vote for Democrats with only 46 percent opting for Republicans.
Only twice has a party retained both chambers of Congress in a midterm election with a president of the same party. In 1934, as the nation battled the Great Depression, Democrats expanded their majorities in the House and Senate under late President Franklin D. Roosevelt. In 2002, amid a patriotic fervor after the attacks of September 11, 2001, Republicans, with former President George W. Bush as commander-in-chief, also expanded their majorities.
White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Legislative, Political, and Pubic Affairs James Blair told SiriusXM’s Breitbart News Saturday that he believes “Republicans can defy history” in the upcoming midterm elections and hold their majorities in Congress.
Blair told host Matt Boyle that Republicans “have a couple important elements” to do so. “First and foremost, we have a record and a clear contrast. We can point very clearly to what things were like two years ago, and the American people remember that: eight percent interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage; now they’re under six percent. Five dollar an average gallon of gas. Now it’s under $2.50. We have real wages increasing, outpacing inflation. Joe Biden had real wages decreasing $3,000 a year, you know, with inflation far outstripping wage growth and price hikes and all of that. The Democrats gave us this economic nightmare that we inherited, and we are now turning around.”
Since the January poll, Democrats have harmed their argument that they could bring about sound governance by forcing their third government shutdown in just over a year since Trump’s inauguration. The government remains in a partial government shutdown with the Department of Homeland Security operating without congressional appropriations, leading to multiple critical security functions shutting down and thousands of employees working without pay.
The survey was conducted online within the United States on February 25-26, 2026, among 1,999 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX.
Bradley Jaye is Deputy Political Editor for Breitbart News. Follow him on X/Twitter and Instagram @BradleyAJaye.
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