Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton would defeat expected Democrat opponent Colin Allred by five points, according to a narrative-kneecapping poll suggesting fears sown by Sen. John Cornyn and his Washington allies about Paxton’s electoral viability are bogus.
In an Emerson poll of 1,000 registered Texas voters, Paxton, who is challenging the incumbent Cornyn in the Republican primary for Senate in Texas, garners 46% to Allred’s 41%.
The same poll found Cornyn, who has run a campaign based in equal parts on his own general election viability and Paxton’s numerous controversies, up on Allred 46% to 38%.
The poll is one of two that has Texas politicos buzzing.
An Emerson poll with half the sample size – therefore much less reliable and more subject to possible manipulation – found Cornyn is up on Paxton by a single point with 30% to Paxton’s 29%, with a whopping 37% undecided.
That poll is a massive outlier, with poll after poll throughout the year showing Cornyn down to Paxton by double digits. Even a poll commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund, a group long aligned with former Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) that supports Cornyn, showed him down 16 points to Paxton in early May.
As Breitbart News reported in May:
Allred, Democrats’ 2024 nominee, was hailed by Democrats as the candidate who could finally take down Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), whose popularity in the state had waned after his much-maligned vacation to Cancun, Mexico, during a severe ice storm in Texas. Democrats poured money into what became one of the most expensive Senate races in history.
Polls showed a tight race between Cruz and Allred throughout the campaign. Yet Cruz clobbered Allred by almost ten points.
The Cruz-Allred poll-defying results lend more credence to arguments from Paxton and his allies that Beltway insider fears about Paxton’s general election viability are manufactured to prop up Cornyn.
Other potential candidates are rumored to be considering jumping in the Republican primary, most notably Reps. Ronnie Jackson and Wesley Hunt.
Bradley Jaye is Deputy Political Editor for Breitbart News. Follow him on X/Twitter and Instagram @BradleyAJaye.
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