Topline
Only two brackets submitted for this year’s NCAA March Madness men’s tournament remained perfect Sunday afternoon, during the fourth day of the college basketball competition, as entrants face near-impossible odds of perfectly predicting the outcomes of the tournament’s 63 games.
Over half of the brackets submitted to the NCAA were busted after game one of the tournament. (Photo … More
Key Facts
The NCAA said Sunday that of the over 34 million brackets submitted on major platforms at the start of March Madness, only two remained perfect on the final day of the second round—both on ESPN’s Men’s Tournament Challenge.
That number will be down to one after the Duke-Baylor game concludes Sunday afternoon, as the two brackets are split between picking the No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils and the No. 9 seed Baylor Bears.
Most brackets were busted after the first game of the tournament Thursday afternoon, when No. 9 seed Creighton’s win over No. 8 seed Louisville busted more than 13.3 million of the nearly 24.4 million brackets submitted to ESPN.
No. 12 seed McNeese State’s upset win against No. 5 seed Clemson University in a 69-67 nail-biter Thursday afternoon took out the next-biggest chunk of brackets, ending perfection for more than 6.6 million.
Brackets that remained perfect after the first round concluded Friday also had to navigate correctly picking upset wins for 12-seeded Colorado State, 11-seeded Drake, 10-seeded Arkansas and 10-seeded New Mexico, while the second round Saturday delivered the biggest upset of the tournament so far when Arkansas knocked off No. 2 seed St. John’s.
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What Are The Odds Of Picking A Perfect Bracket?
One in 9.22 quintillion if bracket submitters flip a coin or just guess for their picks. The odds improve but stay infinitesimally small if submitters have knowledge of the competing teams and NCAA basketball, lowering to one in 120.2 billion, according to the NCAA. A perfect bracket requires the outcome of a whopping 63 games to be called correctly.
Surprising Fact
X, formerly known as Twitter, is offering a trip to Mars to anyone who submits a perfect bracket and $100,000 to the best bracket. If the potential perfect bracket winner does not want to make the roughly 140 million-mile voyage to Mars, they can instead receive $250,000, a SpaceX astronaut training experience and a Starship launch viewing.
What Other Rewards Are There For A Perfect March Madness Bracket?
ESPN has randomly drawn prizes including 20 grand prizes of $5,000 for people who predict the national champion. USA Today Sports will reward $1 million to people who submit a perfect bracket. The NCAA’s Bracket Challenge Sweepstakes gives the contestant with the best bracket two tickets to next year’s men’s Final Four, a four-night hotel stay, $1,500 for airfare and $750 in spending money. (See here for other men’s and women’s March Madness bracket rewards).
Key Background
Nobody has ever picked a verifiably perfect March Madness bracket, according to the NCAA. The closest a contestant has come was in 2019, when an Ohio man predicted 49 out of the tournament’s 63 games, losing his streak during the Elite Eight round. Duke University is favored to win this year’s tournament, according to DraftKings odds, which lists the powerhouse at a +320 betting line, meaning a $100 bet could net bettors $320. Following Duke in the odds race is the University of Florida (+380), Auburn University (+450) and the University of Houston (+600).
Further Reading
March Madness Starts This Week—As Rewards For Perfect Bracket Include Trip To Mars (Forbes)
Meet The Billionaire March Madness Boosters (Forbes)
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