Oil prices continue to rise over escalating Israel-Iran conflict

Brent crude oil prices increased by 4.4% to reach $76.45 per barrel on Tuesday, and by over 10% since Israel launched its first missiles against Iran last week.

According to ABC, the latest spike was sparked by a series of posts made by Trump on Truth Social, where he called Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an “easy target” and claimed that the US and its allies are in “complete and total control” over Iranian airspace.

“The market is largely worried about disruption through [the Strait of] Hormuz,” said Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, while personally assessing such a risk as “very low.”

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime passage through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows. The north coast of the strait is Iranian territory. On Saturday, Iranian MP and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Esmail Kousari stated that Tehran is seriously considering closing the strait to shipping. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein warned that oil prices could surge to between $200 and $300 per barrel if “military operations were to break out” in the area.

Two oil tankers collided in the strait on Tuesday, catching fire but causing no injuries or spillage. The United Arab Emirates Coast Guard said it had evacuated 24 people from one of the ships, Adalynn. The crew of the second tanker, the Front Eagle, reported that a fire on its deck was extinguished.

British maritime security monitor Ambrey deemed the collision an accident unrelated to regional tensions. However, Reuters mentioned “increased electronic interference” caused by the conflict between Israel and Iran in connection with the incident.

Israel launched a series of airstrikes against Iran on Friday, claiming it was seeking to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Tehran responded with a missile barrage of its own, and the two nations have been exchanging strikes ever since.