Odds, Lines, Prop Bets, Predictions And Picks

Saturday’s UFC 313 fight card features a light heavyweight title fight in the main event slot. In that contest, Alex Pereira, who has defended the UFC crown three times with three knockouts, looks for his fourth defense of his crown. Pereira faces Magomed Ankalaev in the matchup. Ankalaev is riding a 13-fight unbeaten streak under the UFC banner. In the UFC 313 co-main event, former UFC BMF champ Justin Gaethje looks to bounce back from a nasty knockout loss to Max Holloway against Rafael Fiziev in a lightweight rematch. We look at the betting odds, line movement, prediction, picks and prop bets for the UFC 313 PPV card.

The UFC 313 PPV fight card streams on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.

UFC 313 Fight Card Preview: Betting Odds, Line Movement and Predictions – Alex Pereira Vs. Magomed Ankalaev

Alex Pereira (12-2) began 2023 by losing his UFC middleweight title to Israel Adesanya by knockout. In July, Pereira followed that setback with a win over former UFC light heavyweight title holder, Jan Błachowicz, in his UFC debut at 205 pounds. He finished the year by knocking out ex-UFC light heavyweight kingpin Jiří Procházka at UFC 295 to claim the vacant UFC 205-pound title.

Pereira made his first defense of his crown in April when he knocked out (another) ex-UFC light heavyweight champ, Jamahal Hill, in the first round of their UFC 300 matchup. Pereira showed his power is on another level, when he finished Hill 3:14 into the first round of the main event of UFC 300.

In June, on very short notice, the UFC called on Pereira and Procházka to headline UFC 303 when the Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler fight fell off that card.

After the bout, which Pereira won via a knockout 13 seconds into the second stanza, I wrote:

“Pereira showed that his first win over Prochazka wasn’t a fluke. The UFC light heavyweight champ is a fearsome fighter who packs a lot of power in his strikes, but he’s also an extremely focused competitor who doesn’t let anything bother him.

“Pereira effectively scored two knockouts on Saturday night, blasting former champion Jiri Prochazka to the mat at the bell to end the first round and then sending him right back down in the opening moments of the second round with a head kick.”

In August the UFC booked Pereira against Khalil Rountree Jr for the main event of UFC 307, which took place on October 5. Pereira outclassed Rountree, putting a beating on his opponent before scoring a fourth-round TKO win.

Pereira picked up his third UFC title defense of 2024 on Saturday night. Pereira let his opponent, Khalil Rountree Jr, tire himself out in the early going of the fight while simultaneously slowing him with powerful kicks to Rountree’s lead leg. Pereira picked up the pace in the third round, fighting very effectively behind his jab. That jab opened up several nasty cuts around Rountree’s eye and on the bridge of his nose. Those blows hurt Rountree, and once Pereira had Rountree fading, he picked him apart with precision and power, forcing the referee, Marc Goddard, to stop the fight in the fourth round. Goddard could have stopped this much sooner.

Pereira was in the running for fighter of the year for 2024.

Magomed Ankalaev (19-1-1-1) has been a member of the UFC roster since 2018. Ankalaev lost his UFC debut when Paul Craig submitted him at 4:59 of the third round. Since then, Ankalaev has gone 13 fights without a loss.

Ankalaev secured a title fight in December 2022 when he faced former UFC champion Jan Blachowicz for the vacant light heavyweight crown. However, that contest ended in a split draw, and with neither man impressing the matchmakers in that matchup, the UFC opted not to give either man a second go at earning the belt.

Since then, Ankalaev is 2-0-0-1 with a no contest (illegal knee) against Johnny Walker, and most recently a decision win over Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 308.

When the UFC opted to give UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira a fight against Khalil Rountree at UFC 307 and bypass Ankalaev, he felt snubbed by the promotion, but also motivated.

“Now everybody knows I’m not fighting for the title and will fight Rakic in Abu Dhabi. Whoever (UFC matchmaker) Mick Maynard gives me I will smash their face so that they can no longer deny me if I do my job impressively. I feel sorry for whoever is gonna fight me from now going forward,” Ankalaev said at the time.

Not long after that, Ankalaev said that Pereira was running from him.

On Saturday, Ankalaev gets the chance to face down Pereira.

When the betting odds opened for this contest, Pereira was a -125 betting favorite over the +105 Ankalaev. Those odds have shifted as fight night nears. Today, the UFC 313 is a pick ’em with the champ at -115 and the challenger at -105.

Pereira has earned 73 percent of the bets and 71 percent of the handle in this contest.

UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira is not a mystery. He is a striker with limited ground skills. Despite everyone knowing exactly what his game plan will be on fight night, only one man has defeated him under the UFC banner and that was Israel Adesanya, who didn’t figure out how to get by Pereira until the fourth time they faced off in a combat sports setting. That is to say, beating Pereira is easier said than done.

Magomed Ankalaev is getting a lot of respect from bettors and oddsmakers in this matchup because he has a ground game that might be able to negate the skills of the champ. No one will deny that, but this is MMA and each round starts standing, which gives Pereira a distinct advantage in this matchup.

The betting pick is for Alex Pereira to defeat Magomed Ankalaev via knockout. For those who favor the challenger, pick Ankalaev to grind out a decision.

UFC 313 Fight Card Preview: Betting Odds, Line Movement and Predictions – Justin Gaethje Vs. Rafael Fiziev 2

When Justin Gaethje (25-5) joined the UFC in 2017 he had a perfect record of 17-0. Leading up to that signing, Gaethje had won the World Series of Fighting lightweight title and then defended the belt five times. All six of his title fights under the WSOF banner ended by knockout.

Gaethje’s first fight with the UFC came in July 2017, when he met Michael Johnson in the main event of The Ultimate Fighter 25 finale card. Expectations were high for that matchup, and Gaethje delivered, picking up a second-round TKO win over Johnson and earning “Fight of the Night” and “Performance of the Night” bonuses for a contest that won several “Fight of the Year” polls for 2017.

Every UFC fight Gaethje has been involved in since has been viewed with anticipation as he has one of the most fan-friendly styles in the history of not just the UFC but all of MMA. Gaethje might not win every time he steps into the octagon, but he is a fighter always looking to earn a stoppage win and entertain the fans. His 12 fight-night bonus awards in 12 UFC outings can attest to that.

Gaethje won the interim UFC lightweight crown in May 2020 with a knockout win over Tony Ferguson. However, he failed to unify the belts, losing to then-champion Khabib Nurmagomedov by submission in October of that year. Gaethje also fell short in his second try at winning the UFC 155-pound belt, dropping a submission to Charles Oliveira for the vacant title in May 2022.

Gaethje bounced back from that loss with his majority decision victory over Fiziev at UFC 286. A fight that earned both men “Fight of the Night” honors. Geathje’s most recent win was his “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning outing over Poirier.

Gaethje has 20 career knockout wins, one submission victory, and he’s been on the right side of four decisions. The BMF champ’s career losses have come by knockout (three) and submission (two).

He is coming off a fight-of-the-year nominee for 2024, his UFC 300 KO loss to Max Holloway. Gaethje is the No. 3 fighter in the official UFC lightweight rankings.

Rafael Fiziev (12-3) joined the UFC in 2019. At the time he had a 6-0 record with six stoppages (five knockouts and one submission), with all but one of those fights ending in the first round. Fiziev’s UFC debut ended 86 seconds into the first round when he caught a spinning back kick from Magomed Mustafaev, who had not fought for more than two years.

Fiziev bounced back from his first career loss by going on a six-fight unbeaten streak. He climbed the rankings during that run, which began with an October 2019 decision win over Alex White and ended with a July 2022 knockout win over former UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos. Fiziev picked up five fight-night bonuses during that stretch.

With his impressive run, Fiziev earned the No. 6 spot in the official UFC rankings. His reward was a matchup against Gaethje in the co-main event of UFC 286. Fiziev entered that bout as a -230 betting favorite over the +195 Gaethje.

The two put on a striking battle over three rounds in front of an appreciative crowd in London that evening. In the end, Gaethje earned the majority decision win. In his next outing, Fiziev faced Mateusz Gamrot in a UFC Fight Night main event. That contest ended abruptly in the second round when Gamrot scored a TKO win after Fiziev planted his leg to throw a kick and dropped to the canvas.

Fiziev has not fought since he tore his ACL in that contest, even though he was cleared for action in September 2024. Despite his inactivity, Fiziev is the No. 11 fighter in the official UFC lightweight rankings.

The opening odds for the UFC 313 co-main event had Fiziev as the -125 favorite over Gaethje, who came in at +105. Fiziev is currently listed at -160, while Gaethje checks in at +135.

Gaethje has picked up 75 percent of the bets for this contest, but 61 percent of the money has come in on Fiziev.

Gaethje has had a long career. That career has been highlighted by some of the most violent fights in MMA history. For the most part, Gaethje’s chin has held up during those wars. However, he is coming off a fight with Max Holloway where he got slept. That’s a significant concern for the 36-year-old scrapper heading into UFC 313.

As for Fiziev, he hasn’t competed since he blew out his knee in September 2023. Yes, he and his surgically repaired limb have been cleared for action for a while, but how will that leg stand up to the pressure, not to mention leg kicks, in this high-pressure matchup?

In the end, I have more questions about Gaethje than I do about Fiziev heading into the UFC 313 co-main event. With that, the betting pick is a Fiziev win via decision. But there will be betting value in picking Gaethje to get the win via knockout or TKO, so that’s a prop bet that must be considered.

UFC 313 Fight Card Preview: Betting Odds, Line Movement and Predictions – Jalin Turner Vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

This lightweight matchup features the No. 13 ranked Jalin Turner against the unranked Ignacio Bahamondes. Turner followed a five-fight winning streak between 2020 and 2022 with a 1-3 run. He enters UFC 313 coming off an April 2024 TKO loss to Renato Moicano. As for Bahamondes, he is riding a two-fight winning and coming off a September 2024 TKO win over Manuel Torres.

The opening odds saw Turner at -125 and Bahamondes at +105. Those odds have flipped. Today, Turner is the +110 underdog, while Bahamondes is the -135 favorite. Turner has most of the bets (59 percent) and money (52 percent).

I think people are putting too much emphasis on Turner’s recent record of three losses in his past four fights. Those losses, in addition to the Moicano loss, which Turner could have easily have won via knockout if he had followed up, are split decisions to excellent fighters Dan Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot, both of whom are much more established than Bahamondes. The pick is for Turner to beat Bahamondes via knockout.

UFC 313 Fight Card Preview: Betting Odds, Line Movement and Predictions – Amanda Lemos Vs. Iasmin Lucindo

There is one women’s matchup on the UFC 313 fight card and that is the strawweight bout between Amanda Lemos and Iasmin Lucindo. Lemos is the No. 5 ranked strawweight, while Lucindo is ranked No. 7.

Like the Turner vs. Bahamondes matchup, the odds on this one have reversed. Lemos opened as the -125 favorite over the +105 Lucindo. Today, Lucindo is -140 and Lemos +115. Lucindo has 62 percent of the bets and 76 percent of the handle.

The betting pick is Lucindo to win via decision.

UFC 313 Fight Card Preview: Betting Odds, Line Movement and Predictions – Bobby “King” Green Vs. Mauricio Ruffy

The UFC seems to be using veteran competitor Bobby Green as a test for rising lightweights. In his fight before UFC 313, Green lost to Paddy Pimblett via submission. On Saturday, Green looks to stop the momentum of Mauricio Ruffy. The odds indicate that he doesn’t have much of a chance to accomplish that goal. Green opened at +380, while Ruffy was -500. Those odds have shifted a bit, but Ruffy is still -475 over the +350 Green.

With the odds being so lopsided, it’s not a surprise to see Green has picked up 76 percent of the bets and 61 percent of the handle.

The betting pick is Ruffy to win via decision.

Ruffy is our UFC 313 fighter to watch.

*All numbers via BetMGM

UFC 313 Fight Card Prop Bets To Consider

Alex Pereira to beat Magomed Ankalaev via knockout: +130

Magomed Ankalaev to beat Alex Pereira via decision: +300

Magomed Ankalaev over two takedown against Alex Pereira: -115

Alex Pereira more significant strikes landed than Magomed Ankalaev: -160

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev goes the distance: +100

Rafael Fiziev to beat Justin Gaethje by decision: +225

Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes to not go the distance: -200

Iasmin Lucindo to beat Amanda Lemos via submission: +600

Bobby Green to beat Mauricio Ruffy via knockout: +1100

Mauricio Ruffy to beat Bobby Green via knockout: -145

Bobby Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy to not go the distance: -200

UFC 313 Date:

Saturday, March 8, 2025

UFC 313 Location:

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV

UFC 313 Time:

Early Prelims: 6:30 p.m ET

Prelims: 8:00 p.m ET

PPV Card: 10:00 p.m ET

UFC 313 How to Watch or Stream:

PPV Card: ESPN+ PPV

Preliminary Card: ESPN

Early Preliminary Card: ESPN+

Stay tuned for more coverage from the UFC 313 fight card. On fight night we will have live UFC 313 results, reactions, recaps and video highlights.