Odds, Lines, Prop Bets, Predictions And Picks

Saturday’s UFC 315 fight card features a welterweight title fight in the main event slot. In that contest, 170-pound champion Belal Muhammad faces the rising Jack Della Maddalena. The PPV co-main event is also a title fight. In that matchup women’s flyweight titleholder Valentina Shevchenko faces the highly-ranked Manon Fiorot. Also on the main card of UFC 315 is a bout between former women’s 125-pound champ Alexa Grasso and Natalia Silva. The PPV card also finds Jose Aldo facing Aiemann Zahabi at 145 pounds. We look at the betting odds, line movement, prediction, picks, and prop bets for the UFC 315 PPV card.

The UFC 315 PPV fight card streams on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.

UFC 315 Fight Card Main Event: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions -Belal Muhammad Vs. Jack Della Maddalena

Belal Muhammad (24-3-0-1) joined the UFC with a perfect 9-0 record. Not long after Muhammad claimed the Titan FC welterweight crown, the UFC came knocking. Muhammad signed with the promotion in 2016. At the time, he was 27.

Muhammad had a rough go of things in the UFC. He went 1-2 with his losses, a decision to Alan Jouban, and a knockout setback at the hands of Vicente Luque, bookending a TKO victory over Augusto Montaño. The loss to Jouban, Muhammad’s UFC debut, earned the combatants “Fight of the Night” honors.

After the loss to Luque, Muhammad won four straight decisions. That winning streak ended in 2019 when Geoff Neal topped Muhammad via decision. That loss is the most recent blemish on Muhammad’s record.

The 36-year-old is on a 10-0-0-1 run since then. Following the loss to Neal, Muhammad went 4-0. That run put him in the main event of UFC Vegas 21 opposite Leon Edwards. At the time, Edwards was the No. 3 competitor in the official UFC welterweight rankings, while Muhammad checked in at No. 13. Edwards was a -270 betting favorite, while Muhammad was the +220 betting underdog.The contest did not last long as Edwards poked Muhammad in the eye 18 seconds into the second round. The eye poke left Muhammad unable to continue, and the fight was ruled a no contest.

Over the next two years, Muhammad rang up five more victories against progressively tougher competition. He defeated Demian Maia, Stephen Thompson, Vicente Luque, Sean Brady, and Gilbert Burns during that run. The triumph over Burns earned Muhammad the No. 2 ranking in the division and a date with Edwards at UFC 304. Edwards was the reigning UFC welterweight champion at the time and was looking to make a third defense of that belt against Muhammad. Edwards was on a 12-fight unbeaten run when he stepped into the Octagon as the -265 favorite over the +215 Muhammad.

Muhammad captured the UFC welterweight title with a decision win.

Muhammad was booked to face Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 310, but a bone infection prevented Muhammad from competing on that card. With Rakhmonov unable to compete at UFC 315, the UFC opted to book Muhammad against Della Maddalena in Montreal.

ForbesUFC 315 Fight Card: Prelims Odds, Picks And PredictionsBy Trent Reinsmith

Jack Della Maddalena (17-2) signed with the UFC in September 2021 following a decision win over Ange Loosa on a Dana White’s Contender Series card. Before the bout, UFC matchmaker Sean Shelby said of Della Maddalena, “I thinkDella Maddalena is probably the best prospect out of New Zealand or Australia at welterweight. He’s a big guy. He throws a ton of offense, and he’s really good in the clinch. The win over Loosa marked the first time Della Maddalena had won a fight via decision. He went into the bout on a run of nine stoppages (eight knockouts, one submission) after opening his professional career at 0-2 with two stoppage setbacks. Della Maddalena was the reigning and defending Eternal MMA welterweight titleholder heading into the DWCS card.

The Australian scrapper opened his official UFC run with four first-round stoppage wins and three “Performance of the Night” bonuses. He finished Pete Rodriguez, Ramazan Emeev, and Danny Roberts by knockout before stopping Randy Brown via submission.

In his first fight to go the distance under the UFC banner, Della Maddalena was in a “Fight of the Night” bonus-winning affair with Bassil Hafez, which Della Maddalena won via split decision. He followed that with another split decision, topping Kevin Holland in September 2023.

The 28-year-old got to finishing fights in his most recent outing, knocking out former UFC welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns in the third round of their UFC 299 meeting.

Della Maddalena is the No. 5 fighter in the official UFC welterweight rankings heading into UFC 315.

When the betting lines opened for the UFC 315 main event, the champ was a -250 favorite over the challenger, who came in at +200. Today, Muhammad is the -180 favorite, while Della Maddalena is the +145 betting underdog.

Muhammad has picked up 51 percent of the bets for this fight and 71 percent of the handle.

The betting pick is for Muhammad to grind out a decision win.

UFC 315 Fight Card Co-Main Event: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions -Valentina Shevchenko Vs. Manon Fiorot

Valentina Shevchenko (24-4-1) has been with the UFC since December 2015, when the promotion signed her as a short-notice replacement for Germaine de Randamie against Sarah Kaufman on a UFC on FOX card. Shevchenko won that bantamweight fight by split decision.

Shevchenko stayed at 135 for her next four fights, going 2-2. Her wins came against former UFC champ Holly Holm and future titleholder Julianna Pena. Her losses, both by decision, came against Amanda Nunes, including a September 2017 split decision setback against then-champ Nunes.

Following her loss to Nunes, Shevchenko dropped to 125 pounds and went on one of the most impressive runs in the history of the UFC women’s divisions.

She put an absolute beating on Priscila Cachoeira in her UFC 125-pound debut. In her next fight, Shevchenko faced ex-women’s strawweight champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the vacant flyweight title. Shevchenko won that scrap via decision.

She then defended her title seven times before falling to Grasso at UFC 285. The two then fought to a split draw in a September 2023 scrap. The trilogy fight between the two saw Shevchenko walk away from UFC 306 with the title back in her hands.

ForbesUFC 315 Fight Card Odds And Predictions: Shevchenko Vs. FiorotBy Trent Reinsmith

Manon Fiorot (12-1) enters her second UFC main event with a perfect 7-0 record with the promotion. The 35-year-old is the No. 2 ranked fighter in the official UFC women’s 125-pound rankings.

Fiorot, a former UAE Warrior’s flyweight champ, joined the UFC in 2021. In her first fight with the promotion, Fiorot defeated Victoria Leonardo via knockout. Since then, she has steadily climbed the rankings.

In her past two bouts, Fiorot has defeated former UFC champion Rose Namajunas and rising Erin Blanchfield, who was on a nine-fight winning streak heading into their UFC Fight Night main event in March 2024. Fiorot has not competed since she topped Blanchfield by decision in that five-round scrap.

The opening odds for the UFC 315 co-main event saw the challenger listed as the -120 favorite over the +100 champ. Today, Fiorot is listed at -135, while Shevchenko comes in at +110.

Bettors favor Shevchenko in this matchup. She has picked up 79 percent of the bets and has had 62 percent of the money come in on her.

The betting pick is for the stronger and more powerful Fiorot to win via decision.

UFC 315 Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – Jose Aldo Vs. Aiemann Zahabi

UFC Hall of Famer Jose Aldo (32-9) has had a long and storied run with the UFC, and at 38, the former WEC/UFC featherweight champion remains a ranked fighter in the bantamweight division, who has been competing at 135 pounds since 2019, is the No. 11 fighter in the official UFC bantamweight rankings heading into UFC 315.

Aldo was 10-1 when he signed with the WEC in 2008. Aldo dispatched his first four opponents under that promotion’s banner by knockout. That run earned him a featherweight title eliminator against Cub Swanson in June 2009. That fight lasted eight seconds, with Aldo delivering a highlight reel finish that is a must-see finish for those new to the sport. It was, and remains, one of the best knockouts in MMA history.

Aldo followed that win with a TKO of Mike Brown to earn the WEC crown. Title defenses against Urijah Faber and Manny Gamburyan followed. The UFC then absorbed the WEC, and the promotion then installed Aldo as the UFC’s inaugural featherweight champ.

Aldo’s UFC title run lasted seven fights, starting with an August 2011 decision win over Mark Hominick. His last successful title defense came in October 2014 when he knocked out Chad Mendes. Conor McGregor took the UFC featherweight title from Aldo in December 2015 with a nasty knockout, ending the fight in 13 seconds.

When McGregor was stripped of the UFC featherweight crown, Aldo, who had won the interim title with a decision over Frankie Edgar in July 2016, was promoted to undisputed champion. He lost the belt in his first defense, getting knocked out by Max Holloway in June 2017. A second knockout loss to Holloway followed in their title rematch in December 2017.

Aldo followed his two-fight losing skid with back-to-back knockout wins over Jeremy Stephens and Renato Moicano. That winning streak ended with three consecutive defeats between May 2019 and July 2020. During that stretch, Aldo fell to Alexander Volkanovski, Marlon Moraes, and Petr Yan.

Aldo’s downturn had many believing the best days of the future UFC Hall of Famer were behind him. However, Aldo is 4-1 since his loss to Yan, with his only setback being an August 2022 decision loss to Merab Dvalishvili.

Aldo took a long break from MMA after that defeat, but he returned to the Octagon in May, picking up a decision win over the favored Jonathan Martinez.

The 38-year-old Aldo has 17 knockout wins, one submission, and 14 decisions. His losses have come by knockout (four), submission (one), and decision (4).

Aldo is coming off a split-decision loss to Mario Bautista.

ForbesJoe Rogan Won’t Work UFC 315: Dominick Cruz Steps InBy Trent Reinsmith

Aiemann Zahabi (12-2) gets the biggest test of his career at UFC 315, and just in case facing UFC legend Jose Aldo isn’t enough pressure for the 37-year-old, all of this is happening in his hometown of Montreal, where Zahabi hasn’t fought since 2015, two years before he made his UFC debut.

Zahabi joined the UFC in 2017 with a decision win over Reginaldo Vieira. He followed that with losses to Ricardo Ramos and Vince Morales. He bounced back from those setbacks with five straight wins.

In his most recent bout, Zahabi defeated UFC veteran Pedro Munhoz by decision. That win broke him into the UFC bantamweight rankings. Today, Zahabi is the No. 15 UFC fighter at 135 pounds.

Zahabi is the younger brother of Tristar Gym head trainer Firas Zahabi, who is best known for his time with UFC legend Georges St-Pierre.

Aldo was the opening favorite at -250, while Zahabi opened at +200. Today, Aldo is listed at -210 and Zahabi at +170.

The underdog has earned 70 percent of the bets and 61 percent of the handle.

The betting pick is for Aldo to win via decision.

UFC 315 Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions -Alexa Grasso Vs. Natalia Silva

Alexa Grasso (16-4-1) was a perfect 8-0 when she signed with the UFC in August 2016. She debuted with a win over Heather Jo Clark in November of that year. However, she struggled after that, going 2-3 in her next five fights. Grasso beat Randa Markos and Karolina Kowalkiewicz over that two-year stretch while falling to Felice Herrig, Tatiana Suarez, and Carla Esparza. Grasso’s first six UFC fights all took place at strawweight.

In 2020, Grasso made the move to flyweight, and it paid off. Four wins between August 2020 and October 2022 put her inside the top six of the 125-pound division and earned her a shot at then-champion Valentina Shevchenko in March 2023.

In a surprising upset on the UFC 285 card, Grasso submitted Shevchenko to claim the title and hand Shevchenko her first defeat since she lost to Amanda Nunes in a bantamweight title fight in March 2017.

In a September 2023 rematch with Shevchenko, Grasso retained her belt in a fighter that was ruled a split draw. Grasso’s run with the belt ended at UFC 306 in September 2024 when Shevchenko earned a unanimous decision win.

Grasso is the No. 1 ranked fighter in the official UFC women’s flyweight rankings.

Natalia Silva (18-5-1) is a former Jungle Fights flyweight titleholder. Silva signed with the UFC in 2020, however she did not make her UFC debut until 2022 after suffering a broken arm and injury setbacks.

She made her first walk to the Octagon against Jasmine Jasudavicius, winning that bout by decision. Since then, Silva has picked up five more UFC wins, most recently defeating former UFC women’s strawweight champion Jessica Andrade in September in a scrap that took home “Fight of the Night” honors.

Silva enters UFC 315 as the No. 5 fighter in the women’s 125-pound division.

Silva was the betting favorite (-190) when odds opened for this fight, while Grasso came in at +155. Today, Silva is -350, while the former champ is +200.

Grasso has 76 percent of the bets, but Silva has 53 percent of the handle.

The betting pick is for Silva to win via decision.

UFC 315 Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – Benoit Saint Denis Vs. Kyle Prepolec

The matchup between Benoit Saint Denis (13-3-0-1) and Kyle Prepolec (18-8) came together on short notice when Saint Denis’s original opponent Joel Alvarez withdrew from UFC 315.

With that, the opening odds and current odds have remained static. Saint Denis is the -1200 favorite over the +725 Prepolec.

As is often the case with lopsided odds, bettors are looking for value. Prepolec has 85 percent of the bets and 95 percent of the handle.

The pick is Saint Denis to win via knockout.

*Odds via BetMGM

UFC 315 Fght Card Popular Prop Bets To Consider

Jack Della Maddalena by KO/TKO or DQ +300

Belal Muhammad by Decision/Technical Decision -115

Modestas Bukauskas by Submission +1200

Muhammad by KO/TKO or DQ +700

Jasmine Jasudavicius by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission +150

*Prop bets via *BetMGM

UFC 315 Fight Card: Date, Time, Location, How To Watch Or Stream

Date: Saturday, May 10, 2025

Location: Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Main Card Start Time: 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+ Pay-Per-View

Preliminary Card Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN

Early Prelims Start Time: 6:30 p.m ET on ESPN+

Stay tuned for more coverage from the UFC 315 fight card. Including live UFC 315 results, reactions, recaps and video highlights during Saturday’s event.